鋼筋混凝土構架機率式地震損失評估;Probabilistic Seismic Loss Assessment of Reinforced Concrete Frame Structures

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題名:	鋼筋混凝土構架機率式地震損失評估;Probabilistic Seismic Loss Assessment of Reinforced Concrete Frame Structures
作者:	蔡彥辰;Tsai, Yen-Chen
貢獻者:	土木工程學系
關鍵詞:	機率式地震風險評估;FEMA P-58;鋼筋混凝土構架;PELICUN;Probabilistic Earthquake Risk Assessment;FEMA P-58;Reinforced Concrete Structures;PELICUN
日期:	2025-08-14
上傳時間:	2025-10-17 11:13:25 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	台灣位於環太平洋地震帶，地震頻繁且強烈，對鋼筋混凝土建築的結構安全構成重大挑戰。傳統耐震風險評估方法（如ATC-40、FEMA 273）多依賴靜力側推分析（Pushover Analysis），但未能充分考慮地震動的不確定性，限制了損傷預測與修復評估的準確性。相比之下，機率式地震風險評估方法（如FEMA P-58）透過易損性曲線量化損傷機率，可依此量化損失金錢與修繕時間，提供較完整的評估架構。然而，此類方法在不同建築類型的適用性及計算效率方面仍面臨挑戰，難以實現大規模鋼筋混凝土建築群的快速風險分析。本研究基於李坤展（2022）提出的「數據驅動之鋼筋混凝土構架機率式地震風險評估」架構，將其改良成可適用於具有不同樓高與柱斷面之筋混凝土構架，並以國震中心振動台試驗建立ETABS模型以驗證其有效性。在此之上，本研究進一步建立一套自動化地震損失評估系統，整合國際上最先進之開源損失估算架構PELICUN，提供不具工程背景之使用者易於瞭解的金錢損失估計。本研究成果具有自動化建模流程與模組化設計，可提供快速的結構風險評估，適用於防災規劃與韌性提升策略。期望本研究成果能成為政府及工程界推動都市防震與災後恢復的重要參考，進一步提升台灣建築物的韌性與公共安全。 ;Taiwan, situated within the seismically active Pacific Ring of Fire, encounters considerable challenges in maintaining the structural integrity of reinforced concrete (RC) buildings. Conventional seismic risk assessment methodologies, such as ATC-40 and FEMA 273, predominantly utilize static pushover analysis and frequently overlook seismic uncertainties, thereby constraining their efficacy in accurately forecasting damage and repair expenditures. In contrast, probabilistic methodologies, exemplified by FEMA P-58, employ vulnerability curves to estimate the probabilities of damage, financial losses, and repair timelines. Nonetheless, the implementation of these approaches is often hindered by substantial computational requirements and limitations in their applicability across various building typologies. This research expands upon the data-driven probabilistic seismic risk assessment framework established by Li (2022) to include RC frames of differing heights and column dimensions. An ETABS model, which has been validated through shaking table test data from the National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering, is utilized to ensure the reliability of the model. Additionally, an automated assessment system that integrates the PELICUN loss estimation framework is developed to facilitate accessible seismic loss evaluations for individuals without engineering expertise. The proposed system enhances the efficiency of risk assessments through automated modeling and a modular design, thereby providing practical benefits for disaster preparedness, resilience planning, and post-earthquake recovery. The findings of this study are intended to inform policy and engineering practices aimed at improving seismic resilience and public safety in Taiwan.
顯示於類別:	[土木工程研究所] 博碩士論文

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