運用細網格精度參數搜尋週期為四年台灣二十公里深度內最強地震圓弧雙交叉進行強震預測;Prediction of strong earthquake by the SDICAE with depth within twenty kilometers searched in four year period by using fine mesh of precison parameters.

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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://ir.lib.ncu.edu.tw/handle/987654321/97413

Title:	運用細網格精度參數搜尋週期為四年台灣二十公里深度內最強地震圓弧雙交叉進行強震預測;Prediction of strong earthquake by the SDICAE with depth within twenty kilometers searched in four year period by using fine mesh of precison parameters.
Authors:	沈庭緯;Shen, Ting-Wei
Contributors:	土木工程學系
Keywords:	最強地震圓弧雙凸交叉;最強地震圓弧凹凸交叉;The strongestt double convex intersections of circular arcs of earthquakes;The strongest concave-convex intersections of circular arcs of earthquakes
Date:	2025-08-26
Issue Date:	2025-10-17 11:16:19 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	國立中央大學
Abstract:	本研究是用細密的精度參數網格來進行研究，且進行後續探討是否能更加有效的得到更多最強地震圓弧雙交叉的資料，並且根據不同的幾何性質篩選方法來把獲得的資料進行分析，再後續評估預測強震的效果。在進行資料的整理時同時研究各種不同的條件對於預測結果的影響。本研究所選定的搜尋週期四年是由於前人已經研究了搜尋週期二年、三年的資料，而為了讓整個理論更加完整，所以再對搜尋週期四年進行資料研究，且為了資料的一致性，與前人研究選定的二十公里深度進行一樣的研究。本研究更專注在交叉的幾何分析上，探討了雙交叉幾何形狀對於預測結果的影響，並發現特定篩選幾何條件下的最強地震圓弧雙交叉在短天期強震預測中具有顯著效果，並且在篩選後，最強地震圓弧雙凸交叉的短天期（120 天內）規模5.7以上強震預測命中率達到 60%（6/10），而最強地震圓弧凹凸交叉的短天期（120天內）規模 5.7 以上強震預測命中率為40%（4/10），總體最強地震圓弧雙交叉的短天期（120天內）強震預測命中率為50%（10/20），若預測強震規模上調至6以上，則利用最強地震圓弧雙凸交叉進行的短天期（120天）強震預測命中率達50%（5/10）。總結來說，本研究證實了將精度參數網格細分的可行性與有效性，以及在特定篩選條件下的最強地震圓弧雙交叉在短天期強震預測中具有顯著效果。關鍵詞：最強地震圓弧雙凸交叉、最強地震圓弧凹凸交叉;This study uses a fine-grained parameter grid for subdivision and explored whether it can effectively obtain more data on the strongest double intersections of circular arcs of earthquakes. The obtained data was analyzed using different geometric screening criteria, and the effectiveness of strong earthquake prediction was evaluated. During the data compilation process, the impact of various conditions on the prediction results was studied. The four-year search period selected for this study is due to previous studies that had examined data from two- and three-year search periods. To further complete the theoretical framework, data from a four-year search period was analyzed. For consistency, the same 20 kilometer depth as the previous study was used. This study focused on geometric analysis of the strongest double intersections of circular arcs of earthquakes, exploring the impact of different geometries on prediction results. It found that under specific screening geometric conditions, the strongest double intersections of circular arcs of earthquakes have significant effectiveness in predicting short-term strong earthquakes. After screening, the prediction accuracy for short-term strong earthquakes with magnitude over 5.7(within 120 days) reached 60% (6 out of 10) for the strongest double convex intersections of circular arcs of earthquakes, while the prediction accuracy for short-term strong earthquakes (within 120 days) for the strongest concave-convex intersections of circular of earthquakes was 40% (4 out of 10). Overall, the prediction accuracy for short-term strong earthquakes (within 120 days) for the strongest double intersections of circular arcs of earthquakes was 50% (10 out of 20). When the magnitudes of the predicted strong earthquakes were raised to over 6, the prediction accuracy for short-term strong earthquakes (within 120 days) for the strongest double convex intersections of circular arcs of earthquakes was 50%(5 out of 10). In summary, this study confirms the feasibility and effectiveness of fine-tuning the precision parameter grid, and demonstrates the significant effectiveness of the strongest double intersections of circular arcs of earthquakes under specific screening conditions in predicting short-term strong earthquakes. ii Keywords: The strongestt double convex intersections of circular arcs of earthquakes, the strongest concave-convex intersections of circular arcs of earthquakes.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of Civil Engineering] Electronic Thesis & Dissertation

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