氣候變遷曾文水庫集水區颱風山崩風險評估;Risk Assessment of Landslide Induced by Typhoon Events under Climate Change in the Zengwen Reservoir Watershed

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題名:	氣候變遷曾文水庫集水區颱風山崩風險評估;Risk Assessment of Landslide Induced by Typhoon Events under Climate Change in the Zengwen Reservoir Watershed
作者:	王筱媛;Wang, Shiau-Yuan
貢獻者:	水文與海洋科學研究所
關鍵詞:	颱風山崩;隨機森林;氣候變遷;山崩風險評估;Typhoon Landslide;Random Forest;Climate Change;Landslide Risk Assement
日期:	2025-06-24
上傳時間:	2025-10-17 11:17:33 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	氣候變遷可能改變侵台颱風的強度與頻率，進而影響山崩風險的時空分布特徵。本研究探討山崩風險根據IPCC的定義分成三項指標，分別是脆弱度、危害度與暴露度。選定居民為保全對象以計算暴露度，加上氣候因素與非氣候因素作為危害度與脆弱度。研究區域為曾文水庫集水區，首先使用隨機森林分類法將四次颱風事件山崩目錄整理成訓練集（賀伯颱風、海棠颱風、卡玫基颱風）和測試集（莫拉克颱風）。主要的山崩潛感因子包括坡度、坡向、高程、NDVI、河距和道路距，合併誘發因子總降雨量和最大時雨量以建立山崩潛感值模型。以莫拉克事件驗證模型，AUC為0.81，顯示模型有能力判別颱風事件所誘發的山崩。去除誘發因子建模，可計算基礎山崩潛感值作為脆弱度。危害度計算以台灣氣候變遷推估資訊與調適知識平台AR5 GWLs升溫2度與4度動力降尺度颱風事件的降雨量資料進行分析。事件總降雨量與最大時雨量以標準分數法計算後為危害度，其在世紀中的變化率為0.4%，在世紀末為1.9%。統計人口密度與推估資料，預計人口在世紀中將下降約16.4%，在世紀末將下降34.1%，經標準分數法計算後為暴露度指標。整合以上三個指標便可計算出該地區的氣候變遷山崩風險值，風險變化率在世紀中為-0.8%，在世紀末為1.6%。經由山崩風險評估，可知曾文水庫集水區的山崩風險在不同時期的差異不大，但空間分布具有明顯差異，當得知高風險區域後，便能優先處理該區域，以降低氣候變遷下山崩造成的威脅。 ;Climate change may cause changes in typhoons’ intensity and frequency, affecting the spatial and temporal characteristics of landslide risks. Following the IPCC framework, landslide risk is assessed by the combination of hazard, vulnerability, and exposure. Vulnerability refers to basic landslide susceptibility. Population density is the exposure, while maximum hourly rainfall and total rainfall in a typhoon event represent the hazard. The study area is the Zengwen Reservoir watershed. Landslide susceptibility was modeled using a Random Forest classifier trained on three typhoon-induced landslide inventories (i.e., Herb, Haitang, Kalmaegi) and validated on Morakot. Key factors include slope, aspect, elevation, NDVI, distances to rivers and roads, and total and maximum hourly rainfall. The model achieved an AUC of 0.81, indicating high predictive accuracy. Vulnerability was estimated using a model excluding triggering factors. Hazard was derived from downscaled rainfall projections under AR5 GWLs 2°C and 4°C warming scenarios from the TCCIP (Taiwan Climate Change Projection Information and Adaptation Knowledge Platform). Standardized scores of maximum hourly rainfall and total rainfall showed hazard increases of 0.4% by mid-century and 1.9% by end-century. Exposure was quantified using projected population density, indicating a decline of 16.4% and 34.1% for the same periods, respectively. Integrating these factors, landslide risk is projected to decrease slightly by 0.8% in mid-century and increase by 1.6% by the end of the century. Although overall landslide risk in the Zengwen Reservoir watershed shows minimal variation, spatial distribution shifts significantly, identifying high-risk areas allows for targeted mitigation to reduce landslide impacts under future climate conditions.
顯示於類別:	[水文與海洋科學研究所] 博碩士論文

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