近年來，隨著社會經濟之蓬勃發展，桃園臺地逐漸面臨水資源供需失衡的挑戰。尤其是在氣候變遷衝擊日益嚴峻的情況下，如何有效進行水資源之調度管理為當前需要面對的重要課題。 本研究運用Vensim軟體建構桃園臺地水資源系統動力模型，整合區內各項供水設施、各標的用水需求與多元情境模擬，以提升模擬的靈活性，並納入氣候變遷推估資料進行模擬分析。根據各項指標結果顯示，在中期SSP5-8.5情境下，桃園臺地相較於基期將面臨停灌次數增加、供水穩定性下降與供水缺口擴大的挑戰。本研究透過擬定6種單一型調適策略(A至F)與4種複合型調適策略(G至J)，評估各項調適策略在中期SSP5-8.5情境下之效益，分析各項調適策略對水資源供水系統韌性之影響，並分別在有停灌之方案與無停灌之方案進行模擬評估。 研究結果顯示，在有停灌之方案下，調適策略J(B+C+D+F)能同時提高公共用水及農業用水之供水穩定性並降低缺水程度，顯著提升桃園臺地面對氣候變遷挑戰下的水資源韌性。在無停灌方案條件下，調適策略G(A+C+D+E)與I(B+C+D+E)將能增加公共用水與部分農業用水之供水穩定度並且降低缺水程度。;The Taoyuan Tableland has gradually faced the challenge of imbalance between water supply and demand due to vigorous development of social-economy. Especially under the increasingly severe climate change, how to manage and allocate water resources effectively has emerged as a crucial challenge, forming the main motivation of this study. This study used Vensim software to build a water resource system dynamic model for the Taoyuan Tableland. The model integrates various water supply facilities, irrigation water demand and public water demand, enhancing the diversity of simulation scenarios and incorporating climate change projections data for simulation analysis. According to the results of various indicators, under the mid-term SSP5-8.5 scenario, the Taoyuan Tableland will face challenges such as more frequent irrigation fallowing, decreased water supply stability, and a widening water supply gap compared with the base period. This study established six single adaptation measures (A to F) and four composite adaptation measures (G to J) to simulate and evaluate their performance under the mid-term SSP5-8.5 scenario. The goal is to assess the impact of each adaptation measure on the resilience of the water resources and water supply system, with simulations conducted under both irrigation fallowing and non-fallowing conditions. According to the results , under the fallowing scheme, adaptation measures J (B+C+D+F) simultaneously improve the stability of both public and irrigation water supply and reduces water shortages, significantly enhancing the resilience of water resources in the Taoyuan Tableland under climate change. Under the no fallowing scheme, adaptation measures G(A+C+D+E) and I(B+C+D+E) can improve the stability of public water supply and partially improve irrigation water supply, while also reducing the extent of water shortages.
