埤塘與農地之旱澇調適策略效用評估—以桃園9-6灌區為例;Evaluating Drought and Flood Adaptation Strategies for Ponds and Fields: A Case Study of the 9-6 Irrigation Area in Taoyuan, Taiwan

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Title:	埤塘與農地之旱澇調適策略效用評估—以桃園9-6灌區為例;Evaluating Drought and Flood Adaptation Strategies for Ponds and Fields: A Case Study of the 9-6 Irrigation Area in Taoyuan, Taiwan
Authors:	柯亞岑;Ko, Ya-Tsen
Contributors:	水文與海洋科學研究所
Keywords:	埤塘;農業水資源管理;水稻田;旱澇調適策略;水平衡模式;Pond;Agricultural Water Resources Management;Paddy Field;Drought and Flood Adaptation Strategies;Water Balance Model
Date:	2025-08-19
Issue Date:	2025-10-17 11:18:29 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	國立中央大學
Abstract:	面對氣候變遷帶來的乾旱與強降雨頻率升高，臺灣農業水資源管理亟需發展具備調適能力的旱澇調適策略。本研究以桃園9-6灌區為例，基於水平衡理論建立水文模式模擬灌區水文過程，並評估六項旱澇調適策略(預先排水、間歇灌溉、加高田埂、農地雨水貯集設施、埤塘浚深、埤塘入水門檻)於現況、歷年全臺乾旱與未來情境下之供排水效用。模式以2023年二期作與2024年一期作進行檢定與驗證，驗證結果良好(R² = 0.85及0.73)。模式模擬9-6灌區之農地垂直滲漏量介於2.75~2.93mm/day，側向滲漏為1.62mm/day。研究發現預先排水與間歇灌溉是在乾旱或多雨時期皆適合使用之調適策略，且在SSP5-8.5情境下能分別減少一期作時農地36,539~39,277m3、125,705~130,345m3與二期作時農地17,709~18,433m3、57,480~58,226m3之灌溉需求，削減未來農地蒸發散增加帶來的埤塘供水壓力，然而在埤塘水位較高時使用可能需要搭配埤塘浚深或埤塘入水門檻適當調控埤塘水位；預先排水、間歇灌溉與加高田埂能在SSP5-8.5情境下分別提升一期作時農地61%、43~45%、22~25%與二期作時農地53~55%、38~44%、36~41%之滯留體積比，以因應未來增加的降雨極端事件；埤塘浚深與埤塘入水門檻則是透過增加埤塘蓄容量與調控埤塘水位提升埤塘的滯洪能力，在SSP5-8.5情境下皆使埤塘滯留體積比維持在100%，同樣有助於因應未來極端降雨事件；埤塘入水門檻亦能夠減少大圳供水量，在現況與乾旱情境非停灌期作中減少41,472~129,968立方公尺的大圳水量，佔期作用水18~67%，減輕大圳供水壓力。;Facing the increasing frequency of droughts and extreme rainfall events due to climate change, Taiwan’s agricultural water resource management requires adaptive drought and flood strategies. This study focuses on the 9-6 irrigation area in Taoyuan. A hydrological model based on the water balance theory simulates the area′s water processes and assesses the effectiveness of six adaptation strategies—Predrain, AWD (Alternate Wetting and Drying), Ridge, Rainbarrel, Deepening, and Threshold—under current conditions, historical droughts, and future scenarios. The model is calibrated and validated using data from the second cropping season of 2023 and the first cropping season of 2024, achieving good performance (R² = 0.85 and 0.73). Simulation results show that vertical seepage in the 9-6 irrigation area ranges from 2.75 to 2.93 mm/day, while horizontal seepage is 1.62 mm/day. The results indicate that Predrain and AWD are suitable for both drought and excessive rainfall periods. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, these strategies reduce irrigation demand in the first cropping season by 36,539–39,277 m³ (Predrain) and 125,705–130,345 m³ (AWD), and in the second cropping season by 17,709–18,433 m³ and 57,480–58,226 m³, respectively. This reduces pressure on pond water supply caused by increased future evapotranspiration. However, when pond water levels are high, these strategies may need to be combined with Deepening or Threshold to effectively regulate pond water levels. Furthermore, under SSP5-8.5, Predrain, AWD, and Ridge increase farmland retention volume ratios in the first cropping season by 61%, 43–45%, and 22–25%, respectively, and in the second cropping season by 53–55%, 38–44%, and 36–41%, enhancing resilience to extreme rainfall events. Deepening and Threshold enhance pond storage capacity and regulate water levels, maintaining a 100% pond retention volume ratio under future scenarios, thereby strengthening flood mitigation. Additionally, Threshold reduces canal water demand during non-suspension cropping seasons, saving 41,472–129,968 m³ of water (18–67% of seasonal canal supply) under both current and drought conditions, and thereby alleviating pressure on canal water resources.
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