本研究利用不同的精度參數TOLde、TOLRe，以搜尋週期五年，搜尋二十公里深度内最強地震圓弧雙交叉，並經過幾何性質的篩選，以進行台灣本島規模 5.7 以上之短期強震機率分析。研究結果顯示，最強地震圓弧雙凸交叉分析結果，本理論120天內規模5.7以上強震預測命中率為50% (5/10)，若設定強震規模大於6，則120天內強震預測命中率仍為50% (5/10);若設定強震規模大於6.48，則120天內強震預測命中率為40% (4/10);最強地震圓弧凹凸分析交叉結果，120天內強震預測命中率為12.5%(2/16) 規模大於6的地震命中率有6.25%(1/16);最強地震圓弧雙交叉整合結果，本理論120天內強震預測命中率為 26.92% (7/26) 規模大於6的地震則命中率19.23%(5/26)。且設定幾何分析標準:半徑比<1.8，弧長比<2，端弧比<2，最大分岔比<10，最大弧周比<0.7以及主軸角在68∘±35∘範圍之內進行幾何篩選以此6種幾何特性指標個別±10%進行分析，整體於個別篩選指標皆呈現穩定。 總結來說，本研究證實搜尋週期為5年最強地震圓弧雙交叉預測的可行性和穩定性，以及在特定篩選條件下的最強地震圓弧雙交叉在短天期強震預測中具有顯著效果。 ;This study uses different precision parameters , TOLde and TOLRe, with five-year search period to search for the strongest double intersections of circular arcs of earthquakes within a depth of 20 kilometers. After geometric screening, the probability analysis of the prediction of short-term strong earthquakes with magnitudes of 5.7 or above in and around Taiwan Island is conducted. The research results show that the theoretical prediction hit rate of strong earthquakes with magnitudes above 5.7 within 120 days is 50% (5/10) for the strongest double-convex intersections of circular arcs of earthquakes and also 50%(5/10) hit rate specifically for strong earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 6, for strong earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 6.48, the hit rate within 120 days is 40% (4/10). The theoretical prediction hit rate of strong earthquakes within 120 days is 12.5%(2/16) for the strongest concave-convex intersections of circular arcs of earthquakes，hit rate is 6.25%(1/16) for strong earthquakes of magnitudes greater than 6. The theoretical prediction hit rate of strong earthquakes within 120 days is 26.92% (7/26)for the strongest double intersections of circular arcs of earthquakes,hit rate is 19.23%(5/26) for strong earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 6. In addition, geometric filtering was applied using the following criteria::RR < 1.8,RLarc < 2,Rendarc < 2,RMaxbranch < 10, arccircle < 0.7, axis angle within 68° ± 35°. When analyzing each of these six geometric indicators individually with a ±10% variation, the results consistently showed stability across all filtering parameters. In summary, this study confirms the feasibility and stability of using a 5-year search cycle for the prediction of strong earthquakes using strongest double-convex intersections of circular arcs of earthquakes. Furthermore, under specific filtering conditions, the strongest double intersections of circular arcs of earthquakes show significant effectiveness in short-term strong earthquake prediction.
