機率式地震損失與修復成本評估之本土化研究;Localized Study on Probabilistic Seismic Loss and Repair Cost Assessment

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題名:	機率式地震損失與修復成本評估之本土化研究;Localized Study on Probabilistic Seismic Loss and Repair Cost Assessment
作者:	歐子威;Ou, Tzu-Wei
貢獻者:	土木工程學系
關鍵詞:	FEMA P-58;本土化修復成本;地震損失評估;Pelicun;災損模擬;FEMA P-58;localized repair cost;earthquake loss assessment;Pelicun;loss simulation
日期:	2025-08-28
上傳時間:	2025-10-17 11:20:12 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	臺灣位處環太平洋地震帶，地震頻繁，對建築物安全與經濟造成重大威脅。傳統耐震評估方法以靜力分析為主，雖能了解建物在設計地震下的性能，卻無法量化損失與修復成本。FEMA P-58 為一機率式的地震損失評估方法，可透過構件易損性與後果模型評估災後損害、修復成本與時間。近年來，該架構已成為國際上地震風險評估的研究主軸，實務界也逐漸將其導入來評估建築物設計性能水準。然而，其物價成本源自美國，與台灣營建市場差異甚大，尚無法在台灣直接應用。為此，本研究針對FEMA P-58方法進行本土化調整，選定台灣常見構件，依損壞狀態拆解修復工項，並參考國內公共工程價格資料庫及災後實際修繕案例建立本土化修復成本資料庫。研究以美國開源地震損失評估工具Pelicun為核心，將其構件損失與修復方法依國內常用預算編列方式重組，並與原始FEMA資料結果進行比較。本研究後續以一棟鋼筋混凝土構架為例，比較FEMA P-58有無本土化之損失差異。結果顯示，多數構件本土估價顯著低於FEMA資料，有部分差異超過80%，顯示本土化之重要性。本研究亦建立Pelicun本土資料輸入架構，可供使用者自行定義建築中所含之構件與修繕成本。未來可擴展至更多構件與建築類型，結合自動化程式，來推廣機率式地震損失風險評估。本研究成果對耐震設計、工程保險、災後重建及政策擬定具實務應用價值。 ;Taiwan is situated within the seismically active circum-Pacific belt and is frequently affected by earthquakes, posing considerable risks to both building safety and the national economy. Traditional seismic evaluation methods primarily rely on nonlinear static analyses, which are suitable for assessing structural performance under design-level ground motions but fall short in estimating potential economic losses and repair costs. FEMA P-58 is a probabilistic seismic risk assessment methodology that evaluates post-earthquake damage, repair costs, and functional downtime using component fragility functions and consequence models. In recent years, this framework has gained prominence in international seismic risk assessment research and has. However, because the cost data embedded in FEMA P-58 are based on the U.S. construction market, they are not directly applicable to Taiwan. To address this gap, this study proposes a localized adaptation of the FEMA P-58 methodology tailored to Taiwan. Common structural and non-structural components used in Taiwanese buildings were identified, and their repair actions were defined based on various damage states. A localized repair cost database was then developed using data from the Taiwan Public Construction Cost Database and real-world post-earthquake repair records. The open-source tool Pelicun, which implements FEMA P-58, was used as the core analytical framework. Component loss models and repair cost data were reorganized to align with Taiwan′s construction budgeting practices. A case study involving a reinforced concrete (RC) frame building was conducted to compare the loss estimates generated using localized versus original FEMA data. The results reveal that localized repair cost estimates are significantly lower than those from the FEMA dataset—by more than 80% in some cases—underscoring the necessity of localization for accurate loss estimation. Furthermore, this study establishes a flexible data input framework within Pelicun, enabling users to define building components and repair costs in accordance with local practices. This framework provides a foundation for future expansions to include a broader range of components and building types. It also facilitates integration with automated workflows to support large-scale, probabilistic seismic loss assessments. The outcomes of this study have substantial practical implications for seismic design, engineering insurance, post-disaster reconstruction, and policymaking in Taiwan.
顯示於類別:	[土木工程研究所] 博碩士論文

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