| 摘要: | 捷運系統是城市發展的關鍵交通建設，也是實現永續城市治理的重要規劃，隨著各國積極推動城市捷運擴展，臺灣目前有臺北、新北、桃園、臺中與高雄等五大城市捷運，還有多個縣市正積極爭取設置捷運系統以推動城市發展。但建設捷運常伴隨高昂的興建成本與長期營運維護的費用支出，導致多數營運單位與主管機關在建設後面臨財務上的嚴峻挑戰，難以達成自償與永續經營的目標。
本研究以桃園大眾捷運股份有限公司為個案，透過可行性評估報告與實際營運資料對比，分析機場線之營運收入、成本結構、資本虧損填補能力與負債償還狀況，並進一步建立未來30年財務預測模型，更納入即將接管之捷運綠線的營運，來探討桃園捷運系統邁向財務永續的可行性。
研究運用淨現值（NPV）、內生報酬率（IRR）、經營比等財務指標進行分析，並探討桃園捷運償債與填補虧損能力、重置與增購成本、土地開發效益及產權轉移對財務結構的影響。
研究結果顯示，桃園捷運公司在疫情後營收表現漸入佳境、償債能力有所提升，未來運輸需求有成長趨勢，但面對未來有重置與增購成本支出的壓力與綠線營運會造成的初期虧損，桃園捷運公司在營運與財務挑戰依然嚴峻，須即早擬定策略應對。
本研究建議以損益平衡的方式進行營運收入目標之設定、營運成本金額之管控，建立長期財務監控機制，增加政府資金投入來穩定桃園捷運公司的財務結構，積極推動產權移轉並發展土地開發效益，並且建議未來建設捷運系統實際納入土地開發效益與TIF租稅收益，以支應興建所需資金、貼補營運大額資本支出，提升公共運輸服務品質與實現財務永續經營。;Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) systems are critical infrastructure for urban development and a key component of sustainable city planning. Many countries are actively expanding urban metro networks. Taiwan, for example, has MRT systems in five major cities—Taipei, New Taipei, Taoyuan, Taichung, and Kaohsiung—and several other counties are seeking to establish systems to spur urban growth. However, MRT projects entail high construction costs and substantial long-term operating and maintenance expenditures. These financial burdens often leave operators and government agencies facing severe challenges post-construction, making it difficult to achieve self-sufficiency and sustainable operations.
This study uses Taoyuan Metro Corporation as a case study. It compares feasibility study projections with actual operational data to analyze the Airport Line’s revenue, cost structure, capacity to cover capital shortfalls, and debt repayment status. Using this information, a 30-year financial forecast model is developed, incorporating the forthcoming Green Line operations, to evaluate the Taoyuan MRT system’s prospects for achieving financial sustainability.
The analysis employs financial indicators such as Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and operating ratio to evaluate performance. Additionally, the study examines Taoyuan Metro’s ability to service debt and cover operational deficits, as well as the impact of future asset replacement and expansion costs. It also considers the benefits of land development and the effects of asset transfer arrangements on the company’s financial structure.
Analytical results suggest that in the wake of the pandemic, Taoyuan Metro’s revenue performance has been improving and its debt servicing capacity has strengthened, and future ridership demand is expected to grow. However, the company faces pressure from substantial upcoming capital expenditures for asset replacement and expansion, and the initial operation of the Green Line is projected to incur early losses. Thus, Taoyuan Metro still confronts serious operational and financial challenges, requiring proactive strategic planning to address these issues.
The study recommends adopting a break-even approach for setting revenue targets and controlling operating costs, along with establishing a long-term financial monitoring mechanism. It also calls for increased government funding to stabilize Taoyuan Metro’s financial structure, and advocates proactively pursuing asset transfer initiatives and land development opportunities to strengthen the company’s finances. Furthermore, it suggests that future MRT projects integrate land development benefits and tax-increment financing (TIF) revenues to help fund construction and offset major capital expenditures, thereby improving public transport service quality and achieving financially sustainable operations. |
