檢視地震活動分析與地震危害評估方法：花東縱谷地區的應用;Review the Approaches of Earthquake Activity Analysis and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment: Application to Longitudinal Valley, Taiwan

NCUIR > College of Earth Sciences > Graduate Institute of Geophysics > Electronic Thesis & Dissertation > Item 987654321/97669

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://ir.lib.ncu.edu.tw/handle/987654321/97669

Title:	檢視地震活動分析與地震危害評估方法：花東縱谷地區的應用;Review the Approaches of Earthquake Activity Analysis and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment: Application to Longitudinal Valley, Taiwan
Authors:	呂亭瑩;Lu, Ting-Ying
Contributors:	地球科學學系
Keywords:	機率式地震危害評估;臺灣花東縱谷;古登堡－芮克特定律;純特徵地震模型;斷層系統中的地震危害及地震發生率模型;傳染型餘震序列模型;Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment;Longitudinal Valley, Taiwan;Gutenberg-Richter law;Pure Characteristic Earthquake model;SHERIFS model;Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence model
Date:	2025-07-12
Issue Date:	2025-10-17 11:45:44 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	國立中央大學
Abstract:	本研究驗證了多個具有長期與短期預報能力的地震模型在機率式地震危害評估（Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment, PSHA）中的應用，並評估其對臺灣花東縱谷地區地震危害水平的影響。研究結果顯示，古登堡－芮克特（Gutenberg-Richter, G-R）定律能有效描述該區域小至中規模地震的長期地震率分布，呈現良好的規模－頻率關係擬合效果；而純特徵地震（Pure Characteristic Earthquake）模型則聚焦於單一孕震構造的最大重現週期與規模，對於推估大規模地震的長期發生潛勢更具代表性；進一步引入的斷層系統中的地震危害及地震發生率（Seismic Hazard and Earthquake Rates in Fault Systems, SHERIFS）模型，結合G-R定律與構造幾何參數，並考量不同斷層間可能產生的多重斷層破裂情形，有助於提升中至大規模地震長期發生率的模擬準確性，對區域性複雜斷層系統的危害評估尤為重要。鑒於傳統長期地震模型對於餘震序列及短期地震活動變化的描述有限，本研究亦引入傳染型餘震序列（Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence, ETAS）模型進行補充，以分析短期內的地震時空分布變化並將其納入時變型地震危害分析框架。研究結果證實，結合長期與短期模型能有效補足單一模型在不同時間尺度上的限制，提升PSHA在震後應變決策及風險管理上的應用價值。本研究成果除提供臺灣花東縱谷地區地震活動特性之新見解外，亦可作為未來推動多模式整合型PSHA研究與地震災害減輕策略發展之重要參考。;This study validates several seismic models with long- and short-term forecasting capabilities used in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and evaluates their impact on hazard levels in the Longitudinal Valley, Taiwan, a region characterized by high seismic activity and data quality. The Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) law demonstrates good fitting performance for the long-term rate in small to moderate magnitudes, while the pure characteristic earthquake model, which assesses the maximum recurrence rates for individual seismogenic structures, better fits the long-term rate for large magnitudes. The Seismic Hazard and Earthquake Rates in Fault Systems (SHERIFS) model integrates the G-R law and structural parameters while considering multiple fault ruptures. It performs well in forecasting long-term seismicity rates, particularly for medium to large magnitudes. Recognizing the limitations of the long-term seismic models in short-term and aftershock forecasting, this study further incorporates the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model to analyze short-term earthquake occurrence rates and assess the temporal evolution of seismic hazard. The ETAS model complements existing approaches by providing more immediate forecasts of seismic activity. The findings from this study provide hazard assessment results across different time scales and underscore the importance of integrating multiple seismic models for precise seismic hazard assessment. This study offers valuable insights into earthquake processes and provides essential parameters for future PSHA studies in Taiwan.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of Geophysics] Electronic Thesis & Dissertation

Files in This Item:

File	Description	Size	Format
index.html		0Kb	HTML	36	View/Open

社群 sharing

Loading...