政黨輪替對股市的影響--以台灣與韓國為例;The Impacts of the Political Party Rotation on Stock Market Performance: An Empirical Analysis of Taiwan and South Korea

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题名:	政黨輪替對股市的影響--以台灣與韓國為例;The Impacts of the Political Party Rotation on Stock Market Performance: An Empirical Analysis of Taiwan and South Korea
作者:	林莉恬;LIN, LI-TIAN
贡献者:	財務金融學系
关键词:	政黨輪替;隨機優越;EPM;Political party rotation;Stochastic Dominance;EPM
日期:	2025-06-24
上传时间:	2025-10-17 11:59:23 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	本研究以韓國與台灣為例，探討政黨輪替對股市績效的影響，並引入經濟表現衡量指標（EPM）、隨機優越法則(SD)與幾乎隨機優越(ASD)法則，構建全面且嚴謹的分析框架。研究發現，政黨輪替對股市的影響因國家特性而異，並呈現複雜性，在韓國，自由派執政期間的股市表現顯著優於保守派，即使考慮風險後，仍維持優勢，這可能與自由派政策強調經濟改革與社會正義有關。而在台灣，國民黨執政前三年股市表現較優，但第四年則反轉為民進黨較有優勢，並顯示國民黨在風險指標略高於民進黨，但整體平均報酬率卻較低，因此民進黨的EPM及夏普值表現更佳。此外，基於隨機優越法則與幾乎隨機優越法則的分析顯示，兩國皆無法明確判定某一政黨在股市績效上的全面優勢。;This paper examines the impact of political party rotation on stock market performance, using South Korea and Taiwan as case studies. It introduces the Economic Performance Measure (EPM), Stochastic Dominance (SD), and Almost Stochastic Dominance (ASD) to construct a comprehensive and rigorous analytical framework. The findings reveal that the effects of political party rotation on the stock market vary by country and exhibit complexity. In South Korea, stock market performance under liberal administrations significantly outperforms that under conservative ones, even after accounting for risk—possibly due to liberal policies emphasizing economic reform and social justice. In Taiwan, stock market performance was stronger during the first three years of Kuomintang (KMT) governance but reversed in the fourth year, favoring the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). The KMT was associated with higher risk indicators but lower average returns, leading to better EPM and Sharpe ratios under the DPP. Furthermore, analyses based on SD and ASD reveal no clear overall superiority of any single political party in terms of stock market performance.
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