| 摘要: | 台灣的房價自2003年起一路上漲，至今已上漲3至3.5倍，國民所得的增幅遠遠追不上房價的攀升。根據世界銀行的定義，發達國家正常的房價所得比一般在1.8至5.5倍之間，而發展中國家合理的房價所得比則在3至6倍之間。然而，台灣早在2008年便已超出世界銀行定義的合理範圍；2023年第二季，全國房價所得比高達9.82倍，其中台北市15.5倍、新北市12.9倍、台中市11.5倍，皆已超過10倍。
為了減輕國民的購屋壓力，財政部於2010年12月1日推出「青年安心成家購屋優惠貸款」（以下簡稱舊青安貸款）。隨後，於2023年8月1日調整推行「新青年安心成家購屋優惠貸款」（以下簡稱新青安貸款）。兩者以下統稱為青安貸款，主要改進方向包括提高貸款額度、利息補貼、延長年限及寬限期。
本研究樣本取自某商業銀行X分行的不動產貸款戶，研究樣本期間為2015年至2024年共10年。繳息正常戶共1,001件，逾期繳息超過1個月以上的逾期戶共49件，合計共1,050件樣本。研究採用邏輯斯迴歸分析進行實證分析，以了解影響房貸授信風險的主要因素。本文的實證研究結果顯示，青安貸款案件對貸款逾期與否具有顯著影響；年齡、性別、貸款金額、貸款成數、利率、貸款期限及寬限期對借戶是否採用青安貸款方案也有顯著影響。
;Since 2003, housing prices in Taiwan have risen by 3 to 3.5 times, significantly outpacing the growth in national income. According to the World Bank, the reasonable price-to-income ratio for developing countries ranges from 3 to 6. However, Taiwan had already exceeded this range as early as 2008. Since the second quarter of 2023, the national price-to-income ratio reached 9.82, with Taipei City at 15.5, New Taipei City at 12.9, and Taichung City at 11.5, all surpassing 10.
To alleviate the housing burden on citizens, the Ministry of Finance introduced the "Youth Loan” on December 1, 2010. This program was later adjusted and reintroduced as the "New Youth Loan” on August 1, 2023. Collectively referred to as Preferential Housing Loans, these programs included improvements such as increased loan amounts, interest subsidies, extended loan terms, and longer grace periods.
The study sample was drawn from real estate mortgage borrowers at a branch of Bank X, covering a period from 2015 to 2024. The dataset includes 1,001 cases with regular interest payments and 49 cases with overdue payments exceeding one month, totaling 1,050 samples. Logistic regression analysis was employed to examine the main factors influencing mortgage credit risk. Results indicate that Preferential Housing Loans significantly impact loan delinquency. Additionally, factors such as age, gender, loan amount, loan-to-value ratio, interest rate, loan term, and grace periods also significantly influence borrowers′ adoption of the Preferential Housing Loans. |
