| 摘要: | 本研究以第一金控（First Financial Holding）為研究對象，採用2006年01月至2024年09月之月資料，運用Ohlson模型探討第一銀行放款營運量對第一金股價的影響，並分析財務與非財務因素對股價的關聯性。在眾多金融股中，選擇第一金控作為研究對象的主要原因在於其核心業務集中於銀行業務，與其他金控（如國泰金、富邦金）擁有龐大保險與證券業務不同，加上第一銀行長期深耕企業授信，並在中小企業金融市場中占有重要地位，故選擇其為本研究之對象。
本研究運用Ohlson評價模型，涵蓋財務面變數與非財務面變數，財務面變數包括股東報酬率、本益比、流動比率、負債比率、現金流量比率、殖利率等財務指標；非財務面變數則包括台股加權指數、物價指數、美金兌台幣匯率、經濟成長率、央行重貼現率等，並透過迴歸分析驗證變數對股價的影響，結果顯示授信餘額與股價呈顯著正相關，表明放款業務擴張能帶動更多利息收入，有效提升市場信心，進而推動股價上升，負債比率亦與股價呈顯著正相關，此一結果顯示，在金融業特有的資金結構下，適度槓桿操作反而有助資金運用效率與獲利提升，進而正向推升股價，反觀現金流量比率與殖利率對股價呈顯著負相關，可能反映市場對銀行資產運用效率及成長潛力的預期，另外在總體經濟面的央行重貼現率與股價呈顯著正相關，而美金兌台幣匯率變動則與股價呈顯著負相關，顯示外資流動對市場評價的重要性。
本研究驗證了放款營運量在第一金股價波動中的關鍵角色，研究成果可為銀行業風險管理、投資決策與政策制定提供實證參考，同時為未來金融市場相關研究奠定基礎。
;Exploring the Impact of Loan Operation Volume on Financial Stock Prices Using the Ohlson Model： A Case Study of First Financial Holding
This study focuses on First Financial Holding as the primary research subject, utilizing monthly data spanning from January 2006 to September 2024. The research applies the Ohlson valuation model to examine the impact of First Bank’s loan operation volume on the stock price of First Financial Holding and analyzes the relationship between financial and non-financial factors and stock price fluctuations. Among the many financial holding companies, First Financial Holding was selected due to its business model being primarily focused on banking operations, in contrast to other financial groups such as Cathay Financial Holdings and Fubon Financial Holdings, which have significant involvement in insurance and securities businesses. In addition, First Bank has long been dedicated to corporate lending and holds a critical position in the SME (small and medium-sized enterprise) finance market in Taiwan, making it a representative case for this study.
The model includes both financial and macroeconomic variables. The financial indicators encompass return on equity, price-to-earnings ratio, current ratio, debt ratio, cash flow ratio, and dividend yield. Non-financial variables include the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index, consumer price index, USD/TWD exchange rate, economic growth rate, and the central bank’s rediscount rate. Regression analysis reveals that the average loan balance is significantly and positively associated with stock price, indicating that loan expansion enhances interest income and market confidence, thereby driving stock prices upward. The debt ratio is also positively related to stock price, suggesting that effective leverage utilization in the financial sector contributes positively to stock performance.
In contrast, both the cash flow ratio and dividend yield show significant negative correlations with stock price, potentially reflecting market concerns over capital efficiency and limited growth potential. Moreover, from a macroeconomic perspective, the central bank’s rediscount rate is positively associated with stock price, while the USD/TWD exchange rate exhibits a significant negative relationship, underscoring the importance of foreign capital flows in market valuation.
This study confirms the critical role of loan operations in the fluctuation of First Financial Holding’s stock price. The findings offer empirical insights for banking sector risk management, investment decision-making, and policy formulation, and also provide a foundation for future research on financial markets. |
