| 摘要: | 隨著全球金融市場的迅速發展與變化莫測，技術分析不管在股市、期貨以及外匯市場中都已是投資人判斷進出場時機重要的工具，而布林通道與ATR指標是最廣為人知的兩個重要的技術指標，它能夠幫助投資人掌握市場價格的波動和風險變動，尤其像是近期全球經濟受到疫情、地緣政治緊張局勢與金融政策調整的影響，市場的不穩定性顯著增加，這使得紀律投資更加重要，因此讓人們對這些技術指標工具更為重視，以此來進行風險管理和價格預測。
布林通道是一種用來衡量價格波動的技術指標，通過上下兩條標準差線所形成的區間來衡量價格的波動範圍。近年來隨著市場不確定性的增加，特別是央行貨幣政策變動、全球供應鏈的中斷及新興市場通脹壓力加劇，股市的波動性大幅上升，這使得布林通道的應用顯得格外重要。當股價突破布林通道的上下邊界時，通常暗示市場進入極端狀態，投資人可根據此信號進行反向操作，捕捉市場短期的反彈。
ATR則作為衡量市場波動性的關鍵指標，在金融市場的動盪時期，有助於投資人判斷市場的波動範圍，並依據分析與觀察，制定合理的停損、停利點，從而控制風險。當ATR指標數值較高時，投資人應提高警覺，並根據波動幅度放大停損、停利範圍，以應對價格的劇烈變化。
綜合上述，布林通道與ATR的結合應用，可以有效的提高交易策略的有效性。在當前這個經濟環境變化莫測的時代，投資人可透過布林通道來判斷價格的支撐與壓力區間，並借助ATR的幫助來衡量當前市場的波動性，從而調整風險管理的策略。
本研究希望通過研究布林通道與ATR的程式交易策略，探討其可行性並幫助投資人提升投資的勝率與獲利能力，並兼具風險控制，從而在動盪的市場中實現穩定的長期回報。
;With the rapid development and unpredictable changes in the global financial markets, technical analysis has become an essential tool for investors to determine the timing of entering and exiting trades in the stock, futures, and foreign exchange markets. Among the most widely known and utilized indicators are the Bollinger Bands and the Average True Range (ATR), which help investors assess price volatility and changing risks. Particularly, in recent times, the global economy has been significantly impacted by factors such as the pandemic, geopolitical tensions, and adjustments in monetary policies, which have increased market instability. This has made disciplined investing more important, leading to greater attention on these technical analysis tools for risk management and price forecasting.
Bollinger Bands are a technical indicator used to measure price volatility, created by upper and lower bands based on standard deviations that define the range of price fluctuations. In recent years, as market uncertainty has risen, especially due to central bank monetary policy changes, disruptions in global supply chains, and rising inflation pressures in emerging markets, stock market volatility has greatly increased. This has made the application of Bollinger Bands even more critical. When stock prices break through the upper or lower boundaries of the Bollinger Bands, it often signals an extreme market condition, suggesting that investors may perform a counter-trade to capture short-term market rebounds.
ATR, as a key indicator of market volatility, helps investors assess the range of market fluctuations, which is particularly useful during periods of financial market turmoil. It allows investors to set reasonable stop-loss and take-profit levels based on volatility analysis, thus controlling risks. When the ATR value is high, investors should be more alert and adjust their stop-loss and take-profit ranges to accommodate larger price movements.
In summary, the combination of Bollinger Bands and ATR can effectively enhance the efficacy of trading strategies. In the current era of unpredictable economic changes, investors can use Bollinger Bands to determine support and resistance levels and leverage ATR to assess the current market volatility, enabling them to adjust their risk management strategies accordingly.
This study aims to explore the feasibility of combining Bollinger Bands and ATR in algorithmic trading strategies, with the goal of helping investors improve their win rates and profitability, while maintaining risk control, thereby achieving stable long-term returns in volatile markets. |
