地緣政治風險對臺灣上市銀行經營績效之探討;The Impact of Geopolitical Risk on the Operating Performance of Listed Banks in Taiwan

NCUIR > School of Management at National Central University > Executive Master of Finance Management > Electronic Thesis & Dissertation > Item 987654321/97900

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://ir.lib.ncu.edu.tw/handle/987654321/97900

Title:	地緣政治風險對臺灣上市銀行經營績效之探討;The Impact of Geopolitical Risk on the Operating Performance of Listed Banks in Taiwan
Authors:	李品曄;Li, Ping-Yeh
Contributors:	財務金融學系在職專班
Keywords:	地緣政治風險;台灣上市銀行;經營績效;財務指標;總體經濟變數;Geopolitical Risk;Listed Banks in Taiwan;Operational Performance;Financial Indicators;Macroeconomic Variables
Date:	2025-07-17
Issue Date:	2025-10-17 12:05:20 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	國立中央大學
Abstract:	本研究探討2000至2024年間地緣政治風險對台灣銀行業經營績效與財務穩健性的影響，核心變數採用Caldara與Iacoviello等學者提出的地緣政治風險指數。由於台灣長期處於區域衝突潛勢與對中關係緊張的地緣政治環境，對金融體系形成潛在衝擊。本研究運用迴歸分析，涵蓋資本結構、獲利能力、經營能力、資產品質與償債能力等12項財務指標，探討台灣地緣政治風險指數是否對其有影響。實證結果顯示，地緣政治風險上升與資本適足率、第一類資本占風險性資產比、資產報酬率、股東權益報酬率、稅後淨利率、淨利差、逾期放款比率及利息保障倍數等變數呈顯著正相關；與營業費用率呈顯著負相關，顯示銀行在風險升溫時普遍會強化銀行資本控管、審慎授信及降低營業成本；另外，也將公股銀行作為虛擬變數，觀察地緣政治風險上升時，哪些變數會呈正相關或附相關，研究結果有助於金融監理機關與業者在面對區域緊張局勢時進行風險預警與資本配置調整。;This study examines the impact of geopolitical risk on the operational performance and financial soundness of Taiwan′s banking sector from 2000 to 2024.The analysis employs the Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR) developed by Caldara and Iacoviello as the core explanatory variable. Given Taiwan’s long-standing exposure to regional conflict potential and tensions with China, geopolitical uncertainty poses significant threats to the financial system.The research empirically examines whether geopolitical risk in Taiwan, as measured by the GPR index, significantly affects twelve financial indicators across five major dimensions: capital structure, profitability, operational efficiency, asset quality, and solvency.The empirical results indicate that rising geopolitical risk is significantly positively associated with the Capital Adequacy Ratio, Tier 1 capital to risk-weighted assets ratio, Return on Assets, Return on Equity, Net Profit Margin, Net Interest Margin, Non-Performing Loan Ratio, and Times Interest Earned, while it is significantly negatively associated with the Operating Expense Ratio.These findings suggest that banks tend to strengthen capital management, adopt prudent lending practices, and reduce operating costs under heightened geopolitical risk.In addition, a dummy variable is included to distinguish state-owned banks, allowing for an analysis of how bank type influences the sensitivity of financial indicators to geopolitical shocks.The findings provide valuable implications for regulators and financial institutions in designing risk early-warning systems and capital allocation strategies amid rising regional tensions.
Appears in Collections:	[Executive Master of Finance Management] Electronic Thesis & Dissertation

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