| 摘要: | 摘要
不管是海金融海嘯或病毒風暴，都是對全球經濟壓力測試及應變能力的檢驗。投資專家及聯合國報告，將金融海嘯及 Covid-19 對經濟的傷害性做個比較，得出後者更甚於前者。商店歇業、勞工失業、長期低利、量化寬鬆，Covid-19 只是揭露了全球政府不願面對的瘡疤。就是如我所說，它是全球經濟的壓力檢測。面對傷害不同，雖 AI 科技與時俱進，但應變能力卻不曾增漲。低利造成的負債逐日增加，前債未清、後債積累。美國政府負債截至今年 3 月，已達到 36 兆美元，這也是低利、印鈔、發債造成的結果。
根據研究顯示，Covid-19 對全球經濟的影響更甚於股市。期間對經濟直接傷害外，還有之後的隱傷、後遺症。相較之下，對股市的影響就如曇花般的短暫。美股市場為全球股市的主要指標，也是本論文主要追蹤及研究的區塊及標的。內文提供的美國三大指數及全球主要指數、美國七大科技股，還有論文後段提到的那期間運用的股票，皆以 2020年 3 月 16 日為觀察起端。
在本研究後段的幾檔股票並非作為推薦，是期間內與客戶溝通交流運用的標的。在那期間效果不同，短期或中期，結果是比好的，但並非是獲利的保證證明。因為在後疫情及至今，有些股票續好，有些則已不受青睞，已走下坡甚至已剩個位數的股價。當初疫情發跡的股票，TSLA 及 NVDA，長期來看結果是好的。
這幾檔在 Covid-19 期間追蹤及與客戶交流之個股，由研究分析中取得的數據顯示，並非所有股票都可以持續持有至 2 年，如 TAP，BYND，研究顯示其股價高檔週期為 1年左右，時間拉長就不宜繼續持有。這些股票是在那期間曾獲利了結過，除了 TSLA 及NVDA 適合長期持有外，TWLO、PENN、DKNG 歷經 2 年後的表現不俗，也適合長期收藏。唯要注意股票特性、股價週期、波動度及市場狀況，並考量自己投資屬性、依照自己格性偏好做判斷，做適合自己的操作及投資。中短線或長線操作先設定好，及時停損停利，保障收益，才能讓投資道路走得長久。
本研究的主旨在於客戶在面對海嘯及風暴時，能以較平常心態面對，且不斷調整心態，不讓經濟低潮影響投資決策。投資心態及專業修練的養成，讓你在面對不同狀況時，能得到較好的收益及找到較好標的。希望大家都因此能得到財富幸福。但提醒您；本研究不鼓勵投機，投資有賺賠，切忌注意風險，不做超出自己能力的投資。
;Abstract
Whether it′s the financial crisis or the viral outbreak, both are stress tests and tests of the global economy′s resilience. Investment experts and UN reports comparing the economic damage of the financial crisis and Covid-19 have concluded that the latter is far more damaging than the former. With store closures, job losses, chronically low interest rates, and quantitative easing, Covid-19 has simply exposed wounds that governments around the world are reluctant to address. As I′ve said, it′s a stress test for the global economy. While AI technology has advanced, resilience has not. Low interest rates have led to a continuous increase in debt, leaving previous debt unpaid and future debt piling up. As of March of this year, the US
government debt reached $36 trillion, a result of low interest rates, money printing, and bond issuance.
Research shows that Covid-19′s impact on the global economy is even greater than that of the stock market. Beyond the direct economic damage, there are also hidden injuries and aftereffects. In comparison, the impact on the stock market has been fleeting. The US stock market is a key indicator of global stock markets and the sector and target of this paper′s research. The three major US and global indices, the seven major US tech stocks, and the stocks used during the period mentioned later in the paper all use March 16, 2020 as the starting point for observation.
The stocks included in the latter part of this study are not recommendations; rather, they were used during discussions with clients. Results varied during that period, with some showing positive short-term and medium-term results, but they are not guarantees of profitability. This is because, post-pandemic and to date, some stocks have continued to perform well, while others have fallen out of favor, declining or even reaching single-digit share prices. Stocks that initially gained popularity during the pandemic, such as TSLA and NVDA, have shown positive long-term results.
Data from research and analysis of the stocks tracked and discussed with clients during the Covid-19 pandemic indicates that not all stocks can be held for two years. For example, TAP and BYND have a high-end cycle of approximately one year, making them unsuitable for holding for extended periods. These stocks were previously profited during that period, and holding for extended periods is not recommended. In addition to TSLA and NVDA, which are suitable for long-termholding, TWLO, PENN, and DKNG have also shown strong performance over the past two years and are also suitable for long-term investment. However, it′simportant to pay attention to the stock′s characteristics, stock price cycles, volatility, and market conditions, and to consider your own investment profile and personality preferences to make decisions and invest accordingly. Establishing a short-term or long-term strategy, and implementing timely stop-loss and take-profit orders to protect returns are essential for longterm investment success.
This research aims to help clients maintain a more balanced mindset when facing tsunamis and storms, constantly adjusting their mindset and not letting economic downturns affect their investment decisions. Cultivating an investment mindset and professional training will enable you to achieve better returns and identify superior investments in various situations. |
