本研究旨在建立可以預測不同區域房地產景氣的指標，本文參考Stock and Watson (1998)提出的擴散指標及李芸臻(2023)的台灣房地產景氣指標研究，將多個房地產的相關變數依其特性區分成總體變數與區域變數，並透過主成份分析 (Principal components analysis)將總體變數與區域變數合成一個指標，用來代表三個不同地區 (台北、台中、高雄) 的房地產景氣狀況。最後希望以燈號的方式呈現比較不同區域間的房市景氣差異。最後做了準確度驗證，各地區的對於未來的INDEX預測準確度，以3個月的預測表現最佳，結果顯示2025年第一季台北、台中、高雄的房地產景氣仍低迷。;This study aims to construct indicators capable of forecasting real estate market conditions across different regions. Drawing on the diffusion index approach proposed by Stock and Watson (1998), as well as the real estate cycle indicator study by Li Yunzhen (2023), this paper categorizes a range of real estate-related variables into macroeconomic and regional variables based on their characteristics. These variables are then synthesized into a single index using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), representing the real estate market conditions in three major areas: Taipei, Taichung, and Kaohsiung. The study further presents the results using a traffic light system to highlight differences in real estate cycles across regions. Model accuracy was evaluated, and the three-month forecast horizon yielded the best performance. Results indicate that in the first quarter of 2025, the real estate market in Taipei, Taichung, and Kaohsiung remains downturn.
