| 摘要: | 本研究旨在探討COVID-19疫情及其他總體經濟因素對全台灣房價指數造成的顯著程度及影響方向，並進一步以疫情發生前後、染疫人數及死亡人數作為疫情嚴重程度指標，探討房價指數是否有因此受到影響。
本研究之樣本期間涵蓋2001年3月至2024年4月，以清華安富房價指數、信義房價指數及內政部房價指數作為被解釋變數，重貼現率、五大行庫放款基準利率、消費者物價指數、股價指數、消費者信心指數、失業率、經濟成長率與每月薪資等作為解釋變數。研究模型中納入時間固定效果及疫情後與各總體經濟變數之交乘項，以探討疫情對房價指數之影響，並採用最小平方法（OLS）進行實證分析。實證結果如下：（1）清華安富房價指數方面，全部模型皆支持假說1疫情後股價指數呈現負向影響，假說2與假說3則未獲支持，顯示疫情期間傳統經濟指標推動房價的影響力減弱。（2）信義房價指數方面，全部模型皆支持本研究之假說1與假說2，疫情後股價指數對房價產生顯著負向影響，消費者物價指數則呈現顯著正向影響，反映出通膨預期下實體資產價值上升的現象。至於假說3中消費者信心指數（dCCI）對房價的影響則未完全符合預期（3）內政部房價指數，全部模型皆支持假說1，而假說2則未獲得支持，假說3則部分獲得支持。綜合而言，本研究結果指出，疫情不僅改變總體經濟環境，也使各項經濟變數與房價指數間的傳統關係出現結構性調整。
;This study aims to investigate the significance and direction of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and other macroeconomic factors on Taiwan′s housing price indices. The analysis further examines whether the housing price indices were affected by the severity of the pandemic, measured by confirmed case counts and death tolls, by distinguishing between pre- and post-pandemic periods.
The sample period covers March 2001 to April 2024, utilizing the Tsinghua Anfu Housing Price Index, the Sinyi Housing Price Index, and the Ministry of the Interior Housing Price Index as dependent variables. Explanatory variables include the rediscount rate, the base lending rate of the five major banks, the consumer price index (CPI), the stock price index, the consumer confidence index (CCI), the unemployment rate, GDP growth rate, and average monthly salary. The research model incorporates time-fixed effects and interaction terms between the pandemic period and macroeconomic variables, and employs Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression for empirical analysis.
The empirical results are summarized as follows:
(1) For the Tsinghua Anfu Housing Price Index, all models support Hypothesis 1, indicating a significant negative effect of the stock price index after the pandemic. Hypotheses 2 and 3 are not supported, suggesting that the influence of traditional economic indicators on housing prices weakened during the pandemic.
(2) For the Sinyi Housing Price Index, all models support Hypotheses 1 and 2. After the pandemic, the stock price index had a significant negative impact, while the consumer price index had a significant positive impact on housing prices, reflecting the rising value of real assets under inflation expectations. Hypothesis 3, regarding the negative impact of the consumer confidence index (dCCI), is only partially supported.
(3) For the Ministry of the Interior Housing Price Index, all models support Hypothesis 1, while Hypothesis 2 is not supported and Hypothesis 3 receives partial support.
Overall, the findings highlight that the pandemic not only altered the macroeconomic environment but also fundamentally shifted the traditional relationships between macroeconomic variables and housing prices. |
