臺灣矽烷市場SCP分析

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题名:	臺灣矽烷市場SCP分析
作者:	張美雲;Chang, Mei-Yun
贡献者:	產業經濟研究所在職專班
关键词:	矽烷;結構–行為–績效;半導體製程氣體;供應鏈在地化;Silane;Structure–Conduct–Performance;Semiconductor process gases;Supply chain localization
日期:	2025-08-21
上传时间:	2025-10-17 12:14:59 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	本論文採用結構–行為–績效（Structure–Conduct–Performance, SCP）模型統整臺灣矽烷（Silane, SiH₄）市場之因果關係與政策意涵。市場結構上，供給端由少數跨國供應商掌握核心技術、關鍵設備與長期合約（LTA），屬賣方寡占；需求端集中於台積電、聯電等少數晶圓廠。不同純度／等級間替代性弱，加上漫長驗證與嚴格安全合規提升轉換成本，使高純產品門檻與集中度更高。綜合集中度指標顯示市場高度集中（CR4≈70–80%；HHI≈1,800–2,000），與其差別化且雙邊集中的緊密寡占特徵相符。矽烷作為半導體製程氣體，對氣相沉積（CVD）與外延成長（Epitaxy）關鍵製程具有關鍵性。方法上，本文結合官方統計、政策法規與產業報告，並以標準競爭與訂價權指標（如 Lerner 指標）評估競爭態勢，同時分析資本強度與合規成本對投資前置時程與現金流的影響。於行為面，業者多以多氣體整合與服務外包提升黏著，合作型態以長期合約與策略聯盟為主；訂價上，中低階產品偏向成本加成，高階產品採協議式／價值導向並輔以滲透與差別定價以管理客群與風險。政策環境方面，相較美國《晶片與科學法案》（CHIPS and Science Act）與中國「紅色供應鏈」，臺灣在戰略性材料之政策定位、備援與儲備機制仍待完備；同時中國低價產能外溢擠壓中低階利潤，導致價格兩極化並抑制創新投資。綜合績效遂呈現「高投資、長回收、短期償債壓力」特徵，獲利重心轉向高階產品與整合服務。綜合前述，本論文提出三層次建議：政策面—納入矽烷及其關聯衍生物為戰略性材料，建構以風險為本的戰略儲備與跨部會協調機制，並透過專區化設置與快速合規通道以縮短投資前置時程；產業面—分階段推動在地化產能、擴大多元原料來源，並配合在岸化供應長約框架、動態需求預警與情境推演以強化供應韌性；能力面—深化產學合作與人才培育，聚焦製程安全、純化與分析量測等關鍵技術。此一組合式策略可同步改善結構、引導行為並提升績效，降低進口依賴與供應中斷風險，進而鞏固臺灣於全球半導體供應鏈之競爭優勢。 ;This study employs the Structure–Conduct–Performance (SCP) framework to synthesize causal relationships and policy implications in Taiwan’s silane (SiH₄) market. On structure, a small set of multinational suppliers control core technology, critical equipment, and long-term agreements (LTAs), forming a seller-side oligopoly, while demand is concentrated in a few wafer fabs (e.g., TSMC, UMC). Weak substitutability across purity/grade—together with lengthy qualification cycles and stringent safety/compliance requirements—raises switching costs and heightens concentration in high-purity segments. Combined concentration metrics indicate a highly concentrated market (CR4 ≈ 70–80%; HHI ≈ 1,800–2,000), consistent with a differentiated, bilaterally concentrated tight oligopoly. As a process gas, silane is critical to CVD and epitaxy. Methodologically, we integrate official statistics, policy/regulatory sources, and industry reports, and evaluate competition and pricing power using standard indices (e.g., the Lerner index), while analyzing how capital intensity and compliance costs shape pre-investment lead times and cash-flow dynamics. On conduct, firms enhance stickiness through multi-gas integration and outsourced services, relying chiefly on LTAs and strategic alliances. Pricing is generally cost-plus for low-to-mid grades, whereas high-end products adopt negotiated/value-based approaches, complemented by penetration and price discrimination to manage segments and risk. In the policy environment, compared with the U.S. CHIPS and Science Act and China’s “red supply chain,” Taiwan’s designation, backup, and stockpiling mechanisms for strategic materials remain incomplete. Concurrently, spillovers of low-priced Chinese capacity compress mid- to low-end margins, bifurcating prices and dampening innovation investment. Performance thus exhibits “high investment, long payback, and short-term debt-service pressure,” with profits shifting toward high-end products and integrated services. Drawing on the above, we propose a three-tier agenda. Policy—designate silane and related derivatives as strategic materials; establish risk-based strategic stockpiles and an inter-agency coordination mechanism; and shorten pre-investment lead times via designated industrial zones and fast-track compliance channels. Industry—phase in localized capacity and broaden diversified feedstock sources, anchored by an onshored long-term supply-agreement framework, and strengthen resilience through demand early-warning and scenario planning. Capability—deepen academia–industry collaboration and talent development, focusing on process safety, purification, and analytical metrology. In combination, these measures can improve market structure, guide firm conduct, and enhance performance, thereby reducing import dependence and disruption risk while consolidating Taiwan’s competitive position in the global semiconductor supply chain.
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