| 摘要: | 過去從2019年年底一直到2023年年中，全球歷經新冠疫情的肆虐，為了防止傳播，國際間出入境限制、嚴重地區封城、感染者進行隔離，造成人心惶惶以外，也對許多產業造成衝擊與考驗。
工具機是台灣機械產品領域的重要出口產業項目，主要銷售地區包含中國、歐洲、美國與新南向國家，面臨新冠疫情帶來的市場需求萎縮，造成出口金額大幅下滑，許多企業連年虧損苦撐，規模較小的公司營運困難，只能採取人員輪休或是停業的措施，來應對這段產業寒冬期。
本研究以事件研究法進行解析，將新冠疫情期間四個疫情的關鍵時間點，以及兩個工具機產業重要政策宣布日作為事件日，研究樣本以台灣上市櫃三十四家工具機、模具零件和紡織工具機公司作為主要研究對象，分析對國內工具機產業類股上市櫃公司股價的平均異常報酬是否影響。
研究結果顯示，疫情對於工具機產業都有顯著影響，負面消息都造成平均異常報酬率受到負面影響而下降的趨勢；正面消息也因台灣提前有相似消息宣布，而提前產生上漲趨勢。與工具機相關的兩個政策，台灣口罩國家隊成軍，也因前期已有相關正面政策出現，而提前平均異常報酬率逐步上升的趨勢；另一政策，行政院釋30億採購工具機給教育單位，此政策並未如預期帶來正面影響，反而間接承認工具機窘迫現況，造成股價下跌走勢。
;From December 31, 2019, to May 5, 2023, the world endured the ravages of the COVID-19 pandemic. To curb its spread, international travel restrictions were imposed, severe lockdowns were enforced in certain regions, and infected individuals were isolated. These measures not only caused widespread anxiety but also had a profound impact on many industries, presenting numerous challenges.
Machine tools are a key export industry in Taiwan′s machinery sector, with major markets including China, Europe, the United States, and countries under the New Southbound Policy. Due to the market demand contraction caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, export figures saw a sharp decline, and many companies faced ongoing losses, struggling to stay afloat. Smaller companies, in particular, had difficulty operating and resorted to measures such as rotating staff schedules or even shutting down operations to survive during this challenging period.
This research uses an event study methodology, focusing on four key time points during the COVID-19 pandemic and two significant policy announcement dates affecting the machine tool industry. The study examines the impact on the average abnormal returns of stock prices for 34 listed and over-the-counter (OTC) Taiwanese companies in the machine tool, mold, parts, and textile machinery sectors.
The results indicate that the pandemic significantly impacted the machine tool industry. Negative news led to a decline in average abnormal returns, while positive news, driven by Taiwan′s early policy announcements, resulted in an upward trend. Two key policies were analyzed: the formation of Taiwan′s "mask national team," which led to a gradual increase in abnormal returns due to earlier positive policies, and a policy where the Executive Yuan allocated NT$3 billion for machine tool procurement by educational institutions. The latter had the opposite effect, indirectly highlighting the industry′s struggles and causing stock prices to fall. |
