不動產選擇信用管制及新青安貸款政策對營建業股價的影響;The Impact of Selective Credit Controls Policies and Preferential Housing Loans for the Youth on Construction Industry Stock Prices

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題名:	不動產選擇信用管制及新青安貸款政策對營建業股價的影響;The Impact of Selective Credit Controls Policies and Preferential Housing Loans for the Youth on Construction Industry Stock Prices
作者:	李瑋琦;Li, Wei-Chi
貢獻者:	會計研究所企業資源規劃會計碩士在職專班
關鍵詞:	事件研究法;不動產選擇性信用管制;新青安貸款;營建業;Event Study;Selective Credit Control on Real Estate;Preferential Housing Loans for the Youth;Construction Industry
日期:	2025-05-13
上傳時間:	2025-10-17 12:20:31 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	本研究主要為探討政府實施不動產選擇性信用管制及新青安貸款政策對於營建業股價的影響，將以上市櫃營建業公司為主要研究對象，並採用事件研究法探討在2020年至2024年期間，相關政策對於營建業股價的影響程度，利用市場模式(Market model)估計預期報酬率，並採用符號檢定法(Sign test)觀察是否產生異常報酬率。實證結果顯示，市場對不動產選擇性信用管制政策的反應在不同事件階段而有所不同。在2020年第一次實施時，於事件發生日前五天就呈現顯著的負向報酬，研判主要是因為投資人預期政策將影響房市交易，造成股價下跌。而第二次至第五次實施時則影響較小，推斷係因央行對房市實施的控管手段並非一次到位，多採分段式實施，故投資者已預期央行會有連續的措施，因此後續政策宣布時，對股價較不會有顯著影響。第六次及第七次實施內容主要為調降第二戶購屋貸款成數上限，對購屋族群造成較大壓力，對股價造成負面影響。新青安貸款政策實施時，投資人認為政策能夠刺激住宅市場需求，帶動營建業整體的成長，進一步推動相關股票上漲。而在行政院通過實施新青安貸款政策優化措施時，異常報酬多呈現顯著負向影響，研判係因優化措施主要針對投資客、未符合購屋自住使用等疑義落實稽核，政策緊縮使得購房門檻提高，導致投資人預期可能會影響房市銷量，造成股價下跌。;This study primarily investigates the impact of the government′s implementation of selective credit control on real estate and the New Youth Affordable Housing Loan Policy on the stock prices of the construction industry. The research focuses on listed and over-the-counter construction companies and employs the event study methodology to analyze the extent of the impact of these policies on construction industry stock prices between 2020 and 2024, using the market model to estimate the expected rate of return, and utilizes the Sign Test to observe whether abnormal returns occur. Empirical results show that the market′s reaction to the selective credit control policies on real estate varies across different event stages. During the first implementation in 2020, significant negative returns were observed five days before the event date, primarily due to investors anticipating that the policy would affect real estate transactions, leading to a decline in stock prices. However, the impact was smaller during the second to fifth implementations, as the central bank′s control measures were not implemented all at once but in phases. Consequently, investors had already anticipated continuous measures from the central bank, resulting in less significant effects on stock prices when subsequent policies were announced. The sixth and seventh implementations, which mainly involved lowering the loan-to-value ratio for second-home purchases, placed greater pressure on homebuyers and negatively impacted stock prices. When the Preferential Housing Loans for the Youth Policy was implemented, investors believed that the policy would stimulate demand in the housing market, driving overall growth in the construction industry and further boosting related stock prices. However, when the Executive Yuan passed optimization measures for the Preferential Housing Loans for the Youth Policy, abnormal returns mostly showed significant negative effects. This is attributed to the optimization measures focusing on strengthening audits for investors and those not meeting the criteria for self-use home purchases. The tightening of policies raised the threshold for home purchases, leading investors to anticipate a potential decline in real estate sales, thereby causing stock prices to fall.
顯示於類別:	[企業資源規劃（ERP）會計碩士在職專班] 博碩士論文

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