電動車對能源產業的影響 ─以C公司為例;The Impact of Electric Vehicles on the Energy Industry: A Case Study of Company C

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Title:	電動車對能源產業的影響 ─以C公司為例;The Impact of Electric Vehicles on the Energy Industry: A Case Study of Company C
Authors:	楊錦程;Yang, Chin-Cheng
Contributors:	高階主管企管碩士班
Keywords:	電動車;能源轉型;淨零排放;永續航空燃油;碳捕捉封存及再利用;氫能;Eelectric Vehicles;Energy Transition;Net-Zero Emissions;Sustainable Aviation Fuel;Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage;Hydrogen Energy;Energy-Economic Modeling
Date:	2025-07-09
Issue Date:	2025-10-17 12:20:38 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	國立中央大學
Abstract:	近年來，氣候變遷導致極端高溫、暴雨、乾旱、颱風等災害的頻繁發生，且越趨強烈，不僅威脅到人類的生命安全與財產，更是嚴重打擊了農林漁牧業與基礎設施，在第26~29屆聯合國氣候變遷會議有發布重要決議及建議，例如：控制全球升溫在 1.5°C以下、全球首次總盤點(Global Stocktak)及呼籲強化國家自定貢獻(Nationally Determined Contributions, NDCs)、成立損失與損害基金、制定全球碳交易規則等。面對全球的淨零減碳目標，政府亦於2025年1月23日發佈「臺灣總體減碳行動計劃」，定訂了「綠色成長與2050淨零轉型」的國家願景，個案C公司為國內最大的能源供應者，對於能源結構轉變必須有因應方案，此外，電動車的發展更是加速了轉變的進程，本研究對於公司能源轉型發展的計劃進行盤點，並以艾森豪矩陣時間管理工具找出未來最具有潛力及最重要的專案項目來進行探討，由盤點後的十項專案工作再聚焦三項最主要的項目為永續航空燃油、碳捕捉封存及再利用、氫能等，並對上述重點工作作現階段的效益分析計算，由結果來看，在初期低碳燃料（永續航空燃油）的效益並不高僅1.6%的減碳量，但未來若持續發展，則有很高的潛力，預估最高可達到56%的減碳效益，在碳捕捉封存及再利用的部份，個案C公司利用探勘的優勢，使用既有廢棄油氣田來開發成為碳封存的廠址，預估初期可以收受約30萬噸的二氧化碳，氫能方面，目前是使用天燃氣重組生產氫氣，主要供煉製工場使用，未來可將多餘氫氣搭配CCUS來生產藍氫，以達到減碳目的。為研究電動車對於能源使用的影響，蒐集過去10年電動車登記數、車用汽油銷量、柴油銷量、航空燃油銷量、電力使用度數、CO2排放量、GDP、CPI、Core CPI、再生能源容量、核能容量、平均國民所得、95無鉛汽油售價等資料，並使用SPSS Statistics28軟體以線性回歸(Regression)進行分析及預測未來10年的趨勢，分析結果顯示電動車在10年後，也就是2034年時預估成長260.5%，汽油需求則會下降27.9%。 ;In recent years, climate change has led to the frequent and increasingly intense occurrence of disasters such as extreme heat, heavy rainfall, droughts, and typhoons. These events not only threaten human life and property but also severely impact the agriculture, forestry, fishery, and livestock sectors, as well as critical infrastructure. Significant resolutions and recommendations were made during the 26th to 29th United Nations Climate Change Conferences(COP26–COP29), such as limiting global warming to below 1.5°C, conducting the first Global Stocktake, calling for strengthened Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), establishing the Loss & Damage Fund, and formulating global carbon trading rules. In response to the global net-zero carbon emission goal, the government announced the " Taiwan’s Comprehensive Carbon Reduction Action Plan"on January 23, 2025, setting a national vision of "Green Growth and Net-Zero Transition by 2050". Case Study Company C, as the largest energy supplier in Taiwan, must formulate responsive strategies for the transformation of the energy structure. Furthermore, the development of electric vehicles has accelerated this transformation. This study reviews the company’s energy transition plans and uses the Eisenhower Matrix time management tool to identify the most promising and critical future projects. From the ten identified projects, three major focus areas are selected: Sustainable Aviation Fuel(SAF), Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage(CCUS), and hydrogen energy. The current benefits of these key initiatives are analyzed. Results show that in the initial phase, the benefit of low-carbon fuel(sustainable aviation fuel)is relatively limited, with only a 1.6% carbon reduction. However, if development continues, it has strong potential and may achieve up to 56% in carbon reduction. Regarding CCUS, Company C leverages its exploration expertise to convert existing depleted oil and gas fields into carbon storage sites, with an estimated initial capacity to sequester around 300,000 tons of CO₂. In terms of hydrogen energy, hydrogen is currently produced via natural gas reforming for use in refining plants. In the future, excess hydrogen may be paired with CCUS to produce blue hydrogen, contributing to carbon reduction efforts. To study the impact of electric vehicles on energy usage, this research collected data from the past 10 years, including EV registration numbers, gasoline and diesel sales, aviation fuel sales, electricity consumption, CO₂ emissions, GDP, CPI, Core CPI, renewable energy capacity, nuclear energy capacity, average national income, and the price of 95 unleaded gasoline. Using SPSS Statistics 28 software and linear regression analysis, the study forecasts trends for the next 10 years. The results indicate that by 2034, the number of electric vehicles is projected to increase by 260.5%, while gasoline demand is expected to decrease by 27.9%.
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