| 摘要: | 近年來，全球經濟受到多重衝擊，包括COVID-19疫情導致供應鏈中斷、俄烏戰爭推升能源與糧食價格，進而引發全球性高通膨。在此背景下，消費者實質購買力下降，消費行為隨之轉變，對金融市場造成連鎖影響。信用卡作為短期信貸工具，可能在通膨高漲時期成為民眾應對物價壓力的重要支付方式。
本研究以2019年至2023年的月度資料為樣本，使用財團法人聯合信用卡處理中心公布之信用卡消費金額為資料基礎，涵蓋食品餐飲、百貨、文教康樂、交通、住宿等七大類別，並搭配我國消費者物價指數，透過敘述性統計、迴歸分析與交互項模型，探討通膨與COVID-19疫情對信用卡消費之影響，並聚焦於消費類別間的異質性關係及其在疫情與通膨交互條件下的結構性變化。
實證結果顯示，通膨對不同類別信用卡消費影響不一。文教康樂類與交通類呈顯著正向關聯，食品餐飲類呈顯著負向反應，百貨類則雖為負向但未達統計顯著，反映消費者在高物價壓力下調整非必要性支出。進一步引入交互項分析後發現，食品類在疫情加上高通膨條件下反而支出增長，呈現生活必需品的價格推升效應；而百貨與文教康樂則在雙重衝擊下支出趨勢下降，其中文教康樂顯著萎縮，顯示消費者傾向壓縮非必要支出，轉向更具基本需求與實用性的消費行為模式。
在變異性分析中可見，文教康樂類與交通類年增率波動最大，受疫情解封與通膨推升影響劇烈，而食品餐飲支出變化相對穩定。整體信用卡總體消費雖對通膨反應不顯著，惟其趨勢仍受疫情政策、五倍券等補貼方案與數位支付推廣所調節，說明政府與市場機制共同在其中扮演平衡角色。
;In recent years, the global economy has undergone multiple shocks, including supply chain disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and soaring energy and food prices resulting from the Russia-Ukraine war, collectively triggering widespread inflation. In this context, consumers’ real purchasing power has declined, leading to notable shifts in consumption behavior and cascading effects across financial markets. As a short-term credit instrument, credit cards may serve as an important payment mechanism for households coping with inflationary pressures.
This study utilizes monthly data from 2019 to 2023, based on credit card transaction amounts published by the National Credit Card Center of R.O.C. (NCCC). The dataset encompasses seven major consumption categories, including food and beverages, department stores, education and entertainment, transportation, and accommodation. By integrating the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and applying descriptive statistics, regression analysis, and interaction term models, this research examines the impacts of inflation and the COVID-19 pandemic on credit card consumption, with a focus on heterogeneous category responses and structural changes driven by the interaction between inflation and the pandemic.
Empirical findings indicate that the impact of inflation on credit card consumption varies by category. Education and entertainment, along with transportation, demonstrate significantly positive correlations with inflation, while food and beverages show a significant negative relationship. Department store consumption is also negatively affected, though not at a statistically significant level. When interaction terms are included, food consumption increases under the combined condition of high inflation and the pandemic, suggesting a price-push effect for essential goods. Conversely, expenditures in department stores and education-related categories decrease, with the latter exhibiting a statistically significant contraction—reflecting a consumer shift away from non-essential spending toward more functional and necessary items.
In terms of variability, education and transportation categories exhibit the most pronounced fluctuations in annual growth rates, influenced by reopening effects and price shifts, whereas food-related spending remains relatively stable. Overall, total credit card consumption does not exhibit a significant response to inflation within the model. However, this muted effect appears to be moderated by pandemic-related government policies, such as consumption vouchers, tax relief, and the promotion of digital payments—highlighting the stabilizing role of policy and market mechanisms. |
