原料價格與匯率波動對清潔劑原料企業之營運分析

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題名:	原料價格與匯率波動對清潔劑原料企業之營運分析
作者:	崔昭信;CHAOHSIN, TSUI
貢獻者:	會計研究所企業資源規劃會計碩士在職專班
關鍵詞:	原料價格;匯率;營收變動率與股價報酬率;多元線性迴歸;Raw material price;Exchange rate exposure;Revenue Growth Rate, Stock Return;Multiple Linear Regression
日期:	2025-07-12
上傳時間:	2025-10-17 12:24:21 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	生活必需的合成清潔劑為石油化學產業鏈中一份子，而製成合成清潔劑主要原料為烷基苯，其合成清潔劑產品與上游石化原料皆與進出口貿易有相當的關聯，由於國際貿易多以美元作為主要交易貨幣，因此匯率波動亦為企業營運與資本市場反應的因素之一。故本研究以合成清潔劑原料產業之上游原料價格西德州原油、煤油、輕油、苯、乙烯、直鏈烷基苯與匯率變動，對上市櫃合成清潔劑原料產業的每月營收變動率與股價報酬率進行相關係數及多元迴歸分析。分析結果顯示，匯率對營收可能具潛在影響，但並非主要決定因素，石化原料價則會受價值鏈於上方原料價格影響，但油價、匯率與商品價格之間並不具有長期穩定均衡關係；而對合成清潔劑原料產業而言，原料變動主要對於市場投資人評價具正向影響，次要匯率則為考量因素之一，但非絕對。;Synthetic detergents, as essential household necessities, are an integral part of the petrochemical industry chain. Their primary raw material, linear alkylbenzene (LAB), links synthetic detergent products closely with upstream petrochemical inputs, forming strong interconnections with import and export trade activities. Given that international trade is predominantly settled in US dollars, exchange rate fluctuations are also considered a key factor influencing corporate operations and capital market performance. This study focuses on the synthetic detergent raw material industry by examining the effects of upstream input prices—West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, Kerosene, Naphtha, Benzene, Ethylene, and LAB—along with Exchange Rate fluctuations on the monthly revenue growth rate and stock return of listed detergent raw material companies in Taiwan. Using correlation analysis and multiple linear regression models, the results suggest that exchange rates may have a potential but limited impact on revenues and are not the primary determining factor. Prices of petrochemical raw materials are influenced by their upstream input prices; however, no stable long-term equilibrium relationship is found between oil prices, exchange rates, and product prices. For the synthetic detergent raw material industry, changes in raw material prices appear to have a more significant positive impact on investors’ market evaluations, whereas exchange rate fluctuations remain a secondary consideration rather than a decisive factor.
顯示於類別:	[企業資源規劃（ERP）會計碩士在職專班] 博碩士論文

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