應用分量迴歸探討極端氣候對台灣通膨及產出之影響

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Title:	應用分量迴歸探討極端氣候對台灣通膨及產出之影響
Authors:	謝秉均;Hsieh, Ping-Chun
Contributors:	經濟學系
Keywords:	極端氣候;分位數;精算氣候指標;通膨;QARDL;macroeconomic;ACI;extreme climate
Date:	2025-06-25
Issue Date:	2025-10-17 12:24:40 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	國立中央大學
Abstract:	本研究旨在檢驗極端氣候現象對台灣消費者物價指數（CPI）與工業生產指數（IPI）之短期與長期衝擊。我們依據ACI精算氣候指標編製極端高溫（ET）和強降雨（HR）變數，並納入失業率與利率及其與氣候變數之交互作用項，建構包含分位數共整合分析之分位數自迴歸分配式落後模型（QARDL）。相較於過去文獻僅探討平均效應，本研究方法可揭露氣候異常對物價與產出的分位數異質性影響:在短期分析中發現極端高溫與強降雨對不同通膨程度之影響存在顯著差異，且與失業率及利率具有相互加乘效果；在長期層面，氣候因素對通膨與產出的關係亦展現分位差異。總體而言，本研究結果彰顯氣候衝擊對經濟變數的非對稱作用機制。本研究創新之處在於結合分位數共整合與交互項分析，完整考量氣候異常在不同總體環境下對通膨與產出之動態影響，較既有以平均效應為主的研究更為全面，也為氣候風險經濟效應的研究提供新的實證證據。;This study investigates the short- and long-run effects of extreme climate events on Taiwan’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Industrial Production Index (IPI) from January 2001 to December 2024. Following the structure of the Actuaries Climate Index (ACI), we construct two key explanatory variables: extreme temperature (ET) and heavy rainfall (HR). We also incorporate unemployment rate and interest rate, as well as their interactions with climate variables, into a Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag (QARDL) framework with quantile cointegration.Compared to prior studies focusing on average effects, our approach captures heterogeneous impacts of climate shocks across different inflation and output regimes. The empirical results show that both ET and HR exert significantly different influences on CPI and IPI across quantiles, and these effects are often magnified or moderated by labor market and monetary conditions. The QARDL model further reveals that such asymmetries persist in both short-run adjustments and long-run equilibrium relationships.This study contributes to the literature by integrating quantile-based analysis and interaction terms, offering a more nuanced understanding of how climate risks influence macroeconomic variables under varying economic environments.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of Economics] Electronic Thesis & Dissertation

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