| 摘要: | 本研究旨在釐清「卓蘭鎮」是否確實為苗栗縣深藍客庄中的綠營，若是，那麼影響卓蘭鎮選民投票抉擇之因素為何。本文援引理性抉擇理論，檢視農業經濟因素對卓蘭鎮選民投票抉擇的影響，並同時採用量化與質性研究方法進行分析。在量化研究的總體資料部分，本文使用中央選舉委員會選舉及公投資料庫的數據，分析苗栗縣各鄉鎮市以及卓蘭鎮各里在民主轉型後歷年兩大政黨之平均得票率，並以四大面向剖析卓蘭鎮之政治版圖；在個體資料部分，本文使用「110年全國客家人口暨語言基礎資料調查研究」資料，比較「卓蘭鎮」與「苗栗縣其他鄉鎮市」兩者之間，在社會結構人口因素、政黨認同、經濟來源以及投票抉擇等變數上存在何種差異，造成卓蘭鎮之政治版圖呈現偏綠。分析結果顯示，卓蘭鎮與苗栗縣其他鄉鎮市之間在「經濟來源」此變數上有顯著差異，顯示理性抉擇理論對卓蘭鎮選民投票抉擇具有影響。最後，在質性訪談部分，本文發現卓蘭鎮選民在總統大選主要受到農業政策因素影響而傾向投給民進黨；在縣市長選舉則會因為地方派系勢力以及人際關係等因素傾向投給國民黨。此外，卓蘭鎮內部各里的政治版圖在總統大選中有呈現差異，靠山的坪林里、景山里以及部分西坪里的「雙連社區」
範圍偏藍，其餘里別則偏綠，箇中原因由國民黨過去在山區用心耕耘所致。;This study aims to clarify whether "Zhuolan Township" is indeed a green camp among the deep blue Hakka villages in Miaoli County. If so, what are the factors that influence the voting decisions of voters in Zhuolan Township? This study adopts a rational choice theoretical framework to examine the impact of agricultural economic factors on voters′ voting decisions in Zhuolan Township, and uses both quantitative and qualitative research methods for analysis.
In the overall data part of the quantitative research, this article uses the data from the Central Election Commission′s database to analyze the average vote share of the two major political parties in each township and city in Miaoli County and each village in Zhuolan Township over the years after the democratic transition, and analyzes the political landscape of Zhuolan Township from four aspects. In the individual data part, this article uses the data from the
"Survey on National Hakka Population and Language Basic Data, 2021" to compare the
differences between "Zhuolan Township" and "other townships and cities in Miaoli County" in terms of variables such as demographic structure factors, party identification, economic sources, and voting choices, which have caused the political landscape of Zhuolan Township to be biased towards the green side. The analysis results show that there is a significant difference in the variable of "economic source" between Zhuolan Township and other towns and cities in Miaoli County, indicating that the rational choice theory has an impact on the voting decisions of the voters in Zhuolan Township. Finally, in the qualitative interview part, this article found that in the presidential election, the voters in Zhuolan Township tended to vote for the Democratic Progressive Party mainly due to the influence of agricultural policy factors; in the local executive elections, they tended to vote for the Kuomintang due to factors such as the power of local factions and interpersonal relationships. In addition, the political landscape of each village within Zhuolan Township showed differences in the presidential election, the region that is
close to the mountains, such as Pinglin Village, Jingshan Village, and part of Xiping Village which called "Shuanglian Community" tended to align with the pan-Blue coalition, while the rest of the villages tended to be support the pan-Green camp. The reason for this was due to the Kuomintang′s hard work in the mountainous areas in the past. |
