| 摘要: | 本研究為2024年總統參選人柯文哲的選舉個案分析。過往的總統選舉當中，台灣政壇基本上維持藍綠兩大陣營對決態勢，直到2024年第三勢力的柯文哲，以新興政黨之姿初次參選即取得26.46%的得票率，特別是在客家人口比例高的桃竹苗地區表現特別亮眼，引發本文作者關注。本文使用「2024年台灣選舉與民主化調查」資料，採用交叉分析及二元勝算對數模型，試圖找出在2024年的總統選舉當中，柯文哲是否有吸引到客家選民的支持，以及在客家青年和客家中老年當中的關係為何？本研究在變數中導入結合青年概念的族群差異、政黨認同、候選人評價、現任總統施政表現、性別及教育程度等變數，研究結果顯示在2024年的總統大選當中柯文哲確實有吸引到客家族群的選票，並且在客家青年當中有達到統計上的顯著水準，但在客家中老年當中則未達到統計上的顯著水準，此現象成功打破傳統客家族群「偏藍」或是「北藍南綠」的印象。另外，柯文哲個人特質與選戰風格或許也反映出客家青年整體的政黨意識或許沒有短期候選人因素要來的明顯。最後，本研究亦指出，在未來的選舉當中，客家青年的需求將越來越需要受到重視，意味著各政黨在爭取客家票中勢必不可忽略客家青年的聲音。;This study analyzes the 2024 presidential election campaign of candidate Ko Wen-je as a case study. In past presidential elections, Taiwan’s political landscape was largely dominated by a contest between the two major camps: the Pan-Blue and Pan-Green coalitions. However, in 2024, Ko Wen-je, representing a rising third force and running for the first time as the candidate of an emerging party, garnered 26.46% of the vote. His strong performance, particularly in the Taoyuan, Hsinchu, and Miaoli regions with high Hakka populations, drew the author’s attention. Utilizing data from the “2024 Taiwan Election and Democratization Study” (TEDS), this research employs cross-tabulation and binary logistic regression models to investigate whether Ko successfully attracted Hakka voters and how support varied between younger and older Hakka generations. The study incorporates variables such as ethnic group differences among youth, party identification, candidate evaluation, satisfaction with the incumbent president’s performance, gender, and education level. The findings reveal that Ko Wen-je did attract support from Hakka voters, with statistically significant backing among young Hakka voters, while support from middle-aged and older Hakka voters did not reach statistical significance. This phenomenon challenges the traditional perception of the Hakka electorate as predominantly Pan-Blue or the regional distinction of “Blue in the North, Green in the South.” Moreover, Ko Wen-je’s personal traits and campaign style may suggest that among Hakka youth, short-term candidate-specific factors play a more prominent role than long-term partisan alignment. Finally, this study highlights that the needs and voices of Hakka youth will become increasingly important in future elections, implying that all political parties must take their preferences seriously when vying for Hakka votes. |
