摘要： In this paper, a Bayesian approach for updating a semi-empirical model for predicting excavation-induced maximum ground settlement using centrifuge test data is presented. The Bayesian approach involves three steps: (1) prior estimate of the maximum ground settlement and model bias factor, (2) establishment of the likelihood function and posterior distribution of the model bias factor using the settlement measurement in the centrifuge test, and (3) development of posterior distribution of the predicted maximum settlement. This Bayesian approach is demonstrated with a case study of a well-documented braced excavation, and the results show that the accuracy of the maximum settlement prediction can be improved and the model uncertainty can be reduced with Bayesian updating. 出版者： Elsevier Ltd 出版日期： 2012-06 出處： Computers and geotechnics, 2012-06, Vol.44, p.1-8 資源來源： Elsevier ScienceDirect 版權： 2012 Elsevier Ltd 識別號： ISSN: 0266-352X 識別號： EISSN: 1873-7633 識別號： DOI: 10.1016/j.compgeo.2012.03.003
