| 摘要: | 摘要： According to the Central Geological Survey Taiwan (CGST), the Meishan fault in Central Taiwan, which induced a catastrophic earthquake in 1906, is considered capable of triggering equivalent events with a return period of 162 years. Therefore, as the next event is expected around 2070, the Meishan fault poses a high level of earthquake risk in Central Taiwan, especially for those cities and townships very close to the fault. However, the best-estimate return period (162 years) and earthquake magnitude (7.1 M L ) reported by the CGST must be subject to some uncertainty, because such an event is very unlikely to recur every 162 years. Therefore, this study carried out a series of seismic hazard assessments for three major cities close to the Meishan fault, with the uncertainty of the best-estimate information being determined using the Rosenblueth algorithm. The results show that for Chaiyi city, which the Meishan fault passes through, the probability of the current design value (i.e., PGA = 0.33 g) being exceeded by the earthquake motion induced by the Meishan fault in the next 50 years would be as high as 55 %. Therefore, further studies should be carried out to obtain a better understanding of the Meishan fault, to develop a robust hazard mitigation plan for nearby cities.
其他題名： Bull Eng Geol Environ
出版者： Berlin/Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag
出版日期： 2013-06-01
出處： Bulletin of engineering geology and the environment, 2013-06, Vol.72 (2), p.249-256
資源來源： Agricultural & Environmental Science Collection
版權： Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013
識別號： ISSN: 1435-9529
識別號： EISSN: 1435-9537
識別號： DOI: 10.1007/s10064-013-0471-x
識別號： CODEN: BIEGB6 |
