Epistemic uncertainty in on-site earthquake early warning on the use of PGV-PD3 empirical models

NCUIR > Engineering College > Department of Civil Engineering > journal & Dissertation > Item 987654321/99908

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Title:	Epistemic uncertainty in on-site earthquake early warning on the use of PGV-PD3 empirical models
Authors:	王瑞斌;Wang, J.P.;Wu, Yih-Min
Contributors:	工學院土木工程學系
Keywords:	Decision making;Earthquake early warning;Earthquake engineering;Empirical analysis;Epistemic uncertainty;PGV–PD3 empirical model;Regression analysis;Seismic phenomena;Southern California;Uncertainty;Warning
Date:	2014-01-01
Issue Date:	2026-04-21 13:40:44 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	Elsevier BV;Elsevier Ltd
Abstract:	摘要： From the literature, we found that PGV–PD3 regressions for on-site earthquake early warning (EEW) can be quite different depending on the presumption whether or not PGV–PD3 data from different regions should be “mixable” in regression analyses. As a result, this becomes a source of epistemic uncertainty in the selection of a PGV–PD3 empirical relationship for on-site EEW. This study is aimed at examining the influence of this epistemic uncertainty on EEW decision-making, and demonstrating it with an example on the use of PGV–PD3 models developed with data from Taiwan, Japan, and Southern California. The analysis shows that using the “global” PGV–PD3 relationship for Southern California would accompany a more conservative EEW decision-making (i.e., early warning is activated more frequently) than using the local empirical model developed with the PGV–PD3 data from Southern California only. However, the influence of this epistemic uncertainty on EEW is not that obvious for the cases of Taiwan and Japan. •Discussing a source of epistemic uncertainty in on-site earthquake early warning.•Examining its influence on earthquake early warning decision-making.•Demonstrating both with PGV–PD3 on-site earthquake early warning examples. 出版者： Elsevier Ltd 出版日期： 2014-10-01 出處： Soil dynamics and earthquake engineering (1984), 2014-10, Vol.65, p.126-130 資源來源： Elsevier ScienceDirect Journals Complete - Autoholdings 版權： 2014 Elsevier Ltd 識別號： ISSN: 0267-7261 識別號： EISSN: 1879-341X 識別號： DOI: 10.1016/j.soildyn.2014.06.003
Appears in Collections:	[Department of Civil Engineering] journal & Dissertation

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