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姓名 李天旭(Tien-Hsu Lee) 查詢紙本館藏 畢業系所 統計研究所 論文名稱 台灣地區主震及其最大規模餘震之研究
(A study of the mainshocks and largest aftershocks in Taiwan area)相關論文 檔案 [Endnote RIS 格式]
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[相關文章]
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[館藏目錄]
至系統瀏覽論文 (2025-8-1以後開放)
摘要(中) 強主震的發生經常會破壞結構,造成財物損失或人員傷亡,之後發生的大規模餘震,可能進一弱化結構,加劇損失與傷亡,甚至危害救災的進行,因此強主震的風險評估及強主震發生後即時評估最大規模餘震的風險是重要的研究議題。本文首先根據台灣氣象局的完整地震目錄,藉分群分析選取1978-2022期間發生在台灣地區的規模5.0以上之主震,探討其規模分配,以及接連發生的主震間隔時間之分配。針對上述主震對應的最大規模餘震,探討最大餘震與主震的規模差距與時間差距之聯合分配。本文進一步分析不同的主震震源機制對於上述主震規模、主震間隔時間及最大餘震相關分配之影響。本文發現台灣主震的規模分配及最大餘震與其主震規模差距之分配與主震震源機制相關。 摘要(英) The occurrence of a strong mainshock often results in the destruction of structures, leading to property damage and casualties. The subsequent large magnitude aftershocks may further weaken the structure, increase losses and casualties, and even endanger disaster relief. The evaluation of the risk of mainshocks and the forth coming largest aftershocks is hence an important research topic. The mainshocks with a magnitude of 5.0 or more that occurred in Taiwan during 1978-2022 are selected from the complete earthquake catalog of the Central Weather Bureau by using a cluster analysis. The distribution of the mainshocks magnitude and the distribution of the interoccurrence time of successive mainshocks are then discussed. Moreover, the largest aftershock corresponding to the mainshocks are selected. The joint distribution of the magnitude difference and time difference between the largest aftershock and the mainshock is then investigated. The effect of different mainshock focal mechanisms on the above distributions is further analysed. The study finds that the distribution of the mainshock magnitude and magnitude difference between the largest aftershock and mainshock in Taiwan is related to the focal mechanism of the mainshock. 關鍵字(中) ★ 分段指數分配
★ 韋伯分配
★ 萊利分配
★ 聯合分配
★ 相關分析關鍵字(英) 論文目次 摘要 i
Abstract ii
致謝 iii
目錄 iv
圖目錄 vi
表目錄 viii
第一章 研究問題 1
第二章 文獻回顧 3
2.1 地震規模頻率 3
2.2 地震間隔時間 6
2.3 主震與最大規模餘震之時間差距與規模差距 7
2.4 統計檢定方法 9
第三章 研究方法 12
3.1 地震分群方法 12
3.2 主震相關分配 15
3.3 最大規模餘震相關分配 21
第四章 研究結果 23
4.1 主震規模分配 24
4.2 主震間隔時間分配 29
4.3 主震及其最大規模餘震之規模差距分配 34
4.4 主震發生時間及其最大規模餘震發生時間之時間差距分配 38
第五章 結論與討論 43
參考文獻 45
附錄A 47
附錄B 49參考文獻 Aki K (1965). Maximum likelihood estimate of b in the formula log N = a − bM and its
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中央氣象局:地震測報中心20周年專刊(2008). 第四章:各觀測系統發展史。
https://reurl.cc/y7RoRq
鄧屬予(2002). 板塊間看台灣地震。科學發展,第350卷,第12-19頁。
https://homepage.ntu.edu.tw/~tengls/geo-info_earthquake.htm指導教授 陳玉英 審核日期 2023-8-8 推文 plurk
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