存活分析法應用於機車紅燈熄火行為之研究; Survival analysis of motorcyclist turn off idling engine in traffic light

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Title:	存活分析法應用於機車紅燈熄火行為之研究;Survival analysis of motorcyclist turn off idling engine in traffic light
Authors:	蕭羽媛;Yu-Yuan Hsiao
Contributors:	土木工程研究所
Keywords:	條件評估法;存活分析法;機車紅燈熄火;contingent valuation method;Survival Analysis;turn-off engine in traffic light
Date:	2009-06-18
Issue Date:	2009-09-18 17:27:29 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	國立中央大學圖書館
Abstract:	台灣地區機車總量不斷攀升，相對廢氣排放量亦日漸增加，適逢國內對於交通號誌紅燈倒數計時器逐步推廣建置之同時，基於全球暖化議題，交通環境政策之制定實應進一步探討生活科技對於降低環境傷害，提供更舒適、更為永續之環境給予下一代。因此本研究利用條件評估法調查紅燈熄火對於機車使用者行為意願之影響，並利用存活分析法構建紅燈熄火區間模式。研究結果顯示，用路人於紅燈區間願意熄火之平均存活時間為50秒，復進一步探討各變數與熄火時間之相關性，得知全球暖化嚴重認知、熄火降低二氧化碳之行為控制信念；執法規範信念、依從信念，年齡與家庭人數等變數與本研究紅燈熄火區間具有顯著影響。最後分析受變數影響而導致用路人熄火的機率，得知全球暖化嚴重認知程度及熄火降低二氧化碳之行為控制信念越低，熄火的機率亦隨之下降；執法規範信念越贊成及依從信念越配合下，熄火的機率明顯增加；年齡越長熄火的機率亦隨之下降，家庭人數越多熄火的機率隨之增加。 The total amount of motorcycles increased continuously as well as the emissions of pollution. Under the issue of global warming, the development of traffic and environmental policies should be further investigated into life science and technology while the installation of Traffic Signal Countdown Displays, in order to reduce environmental harm, to provide a more comfortable and sustainable environment to the next generation. This paper investigates time internal value that the motorcyclists are willing to turn off the engine in light by using contingent valuation method. Next, it used survival analysis to model the sample. The results have shown that the average survival time is 50 second which means that the motorcyclists are willing to turn off the engine during the time of waiting traffic light. Furthermore, the results have significant effects between the internal value and perception about global warming, the belief of diminish carbon dioxide by turn off engine, the belief of enforcement, the belief of comply with other people and the motorcyclist’s age and the number of members in his family. Consequently, this result will become the basis of conducting the regulation of motorcyclist to diminish carbon dioxide and protect our earth. Finally, this paper analyzed the effect of the possibility of which motorcyclists will turn off engine. According to the experiment, it could classified into three kinds of results. Firstly, when both the perception of global warming and the belief of diminish carbon dioxide by turning off engine decreased, the possibility behavior of turning off engine will decrease. Secondly, when people agree with enforcement regulation and the belief of comply with people increased; the possibility of turning off engine will increase. Thirdly, motorcyclists who are younger or have more members in their family will increase the possibility of turning off engine.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of Civil Engineering] Electronic Thesis & Dissertation

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