Customer churn prediction by hybrid neural networks

NCUIR > School of Management at National Central University > Graduate Institute of Information Management > journal & Dissertation > Item 987654321/29653

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ir.lib.ncu.edu.tw/handle/987654321/29653

Title:	Customer churn prediction by hybrid neural networks
Authors:	Tsai,CF;Lu,YH
Contributors:	資訊管理研究所
Keywords:	SUBSCRIPTION SERVICES;MANAGEMENT;ATTRITION;LOYALTY;MODELS;MARKET
Date:	2009
Issue Date:	2010-06-29 20:37:25 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	中央大學
Abstract:	As churn management is a major task for companies to retain valuable customers, the ability to predict customer churn is necessary. In literature, neural networks have shown their applicability to churn prediction. On the other hand, hybrid data mining techniques by combining two or more techniques have been proved to provide better performances than many single techniques over a number of different domain problems. This paper considers two hybrid models by combining two different neural network techniques for churn prediction, which are back-propagation artificial neural networks (ANN) and self-organizing maps (SOM). The hybrid models are ANN combined with ANN (ANN +ANN) and SOM combined with ANN (SOM + ANN). In particular, the first technique of the two hybrid models performs the data reduction task by filtering Out unrepresentative training data. Then, the outputs as representative data are used to create the prediction model based on the second technique. To evaluate the performance of these models, three different kinds of testing sets are considered. They are the general testing set and two fuzzy testing sets based on the filtered out data by the first technique of the two hybrid models, i.e. ANN and SOM, respectively. The experimental results show that the two hybrid models outperform the single neural network baseline model in terms of prediction accuracy and Types I and 11 errors over the three kinds of testing sets. In addition, the ANN + ANN hybrid model significantly performs better than the SOM + ANN hybrid model and the ANN baseline model. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Relation:	EXPERT SYSTEMS WITH APPLICATIONS
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of Information Management] journal & Dissertation

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