石門水庫供水系統風險分析; Risk Analysis for Shihmen Reservoir Water Supply System

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Title:	石門水庫供水系統風險分析;Risk Analysis for Shihmen Reservoir Water Supply System
Authors:	陳伯豪;Bor-Haur Chen
Contributors:	土木工程研究所
Keywords:	系統動力學;缺水指標;缺水百分日指標;可靠度;風險分析;Risk Analysis;Deficit Percent Day Index;Shortage Index;Reliability;System Dynamics
Date:	2011-07-21
Issue Date:	2012-01-05 11:08:03 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	桃園縣地區的用水主要來自石門水庫供水系統，若降雨情形稍不理想或是颱風造成原水濁度過高，系統將供應不及並造成大桃園地區的缺水。2002~2004年石門水庫集水區的降雨情形均屬罕見少雨，造成旱象頻傳，使得桃園和石門農田水利會分別實行停灌等抗旱措施；2004年艾利颱風侵襲，造成石門水庫原水濁度飆高，致使淨水場無法正常出水，導致大桃園地區缺水長達2個禮拜。為此經濟部提報「石門水庫及其集水區整治計畫」，計畫中包含分層取水工和中庄調整池的興建。　　本研究選取石門供水系統，使用系統動力學概念，利用VENSIM軟體建構供水系統模型，其中分別包含分層取水工和中庄調整池的應用。模擬石門供水系統在不同的供水策略的改變下，各個淨水場（龍潭、平鎮、石門、大湳、板新淨水場）的供水情況，分析各淨水場、南桃園、北桃園和系統的可靠度（Reliability）、缺水指標（Shortage Index, SI）和缺水百分日指標（Deficit Percent Day Index, DPD），探討系統發生錯誤的機率和系統的供水情形。　　研究結果顯示，以石門水庫和三峽河為原水時，供水系統中板新場的可靠度和缺水指標情況最不理想；北桃園系統中的大湳場是最為理想的；南桃園系統中以平鎮場的狀況最好，其次為龍潭場和石門場。平均缺水百分日指標以板新場最高，平鎮場最低，而整個石門水庫供水系統的各次缺水事件DPD皆低於缺水容忍門檻1500 %-day，平均值為87.76 %-day。　　將分析年使用不同的年限長度來分組並討論，各系統的可靠度皆有下降的趨勢，而SI則有上升的現象。在興建兩項設施後皆能獲得良好的改善，與原始狀況相比，最多能減少系統19%的缺水天和24%的缺水量。　　The water supply of Taoyuan County mainly comes from Shihmen Reservoir. Severe droughts were witnessed in 2002~2004. Typhoon Aere, striking northern Taiwan in 2004, caused high turbidity of inflow into the reservoir, and forced water purification plants to shut down. This resulted in suspension of the water supply in Taoyuan for over 2 weeks. In order to solve the water deficit dilemma, Water Resources Agency formulated project “Implementation Plan of Shihmen Reservoir and Its Catchment Management Project”. This study utilized System Dynamics software“VENSIM”to build dynamics models for Shihmen Reservoir water supply system, which includes Multi-layer intake and Zhongzhung water storage pool. This study investigates Reliability, SI (Shortage Index) and DPD (Deficit Percent Day Index) of different water purification plants (Lungtan, Pingzhen, Shihmen, Danan and Banxin) associating with different water supply regions (north Taoyuan, south Taoyuan, and Shihmen reservoir water supply system). According to the results, the Reliability and SI in Banxin water purification plant is the worst. On the other hand, north Taoyuan’s Danan water purification plant is the best. The DPD of each water shortage event in Shihmen Reservoir water supply system was lower than the tolerance level of water shortage, defined as DPD being 1500 %-day, with the average 87.76 %-day. After adding Multi-layer intake and Zhongzhung water storage pool on the system, the water deficient days reduced by 19% while water deficit reduced by 24%.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of Civil Engineering] Electronic Thesis & Dissertation

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