中央氣象局全球系集颱風預報系統建置研究;The Research for Development of Global Ensemble Typhoon Forecast System In CWB

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题名:	中央氣象局全球系集颱風預報系統建置研究;The Research for Development of Global Ensemble Typhoon Forecast System In CWB
作者:	楊舒芝;楊明仁;陳登舜
贡献者:	國立中央大學大氣物理研究所
关键词:	大氣科學
日期:	2014-03-10
上传时间:	2014-03-11 09:43:25 (UTC+8)
出版者:	交通部中央氣象局
摘要:	研究期間：10301~10312;World operation centers now are aiming at the ensemble typhoon tracks prediction. One hand is to get the fair prediction or the probability forecast by ensemble members avoiding the loss of one deterministic prediction; the other hand is to calibrate the initial conditions of typhoon like the bogus scheme, the parameter modification of typhoon structure, and selection of the physical process. The purpose of this project is to establish the prototype of ensemble prediction system using Central Weather Bureau global model. The ensemble method is based on one single model and multi perturbations. The perturbations will be decided by (1) currently Central Weather Bureau singular vectors and (2) generation by random errors. Moreover, the diagnostic tools and statistical tests will be developed and studied in this project for the future ensemble classifications and probability forecasts.
關聯:	財團法人國家實驗研究院科技政策研究與資訊中心
显示于类别:	[大氣物理研究所 ] 研究計畫

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