台灣住宅政策效果之動態隨機一般均衡模型分析;The Effects of Government Housing Policies in Taiwan in a DSGE Model

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题名:	台灣住宅政策效果之動態隨機一般均衡模型分析;The Effects of Government Housing Policies in Taiwan in a DSGE Model
作者:	廖德馨;Liao, Der-Shin
贡献者:	經濟學系
关键词:	住宅政策;Housing Policy
日期:	2021-08-05
上传时间:	2021-12-07 12:50:47 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	本文建構一個包含租房屋買賣市場與房屋租賃市場的動態隨機一般模型，並且加入房屋抵押貸款的限制，以分析房貸成數、房屋稅稅率與租屋補貼對總體經濟的影響。透過模型的模擬分析，我們發現當房貸成數上升時，房屋買賣的數量與房價都上升，租屋市場的供給增加，造成房屋租金下跌。由於房東將房屋支出提高，限制了消費財的支出，使得總產出下降。當房屋稅稅率提高時，房東持有房屋的成本增加而減少房屋購買，使得房價降低與房屋生產部門產出減少。且由於房屋生產部門雇用的資本以及勞動減少，使得資本與勞動流向一般消費財生產部門，消費財產出增加。當租屋補貼提高，帶動房屋租賃市場的需求，租屋人租賃的房屋增加、租金上漲，房東也因此願意投入更多的資金購買房屋以提高租屋供給。當家計單位皆在房屋市場增加消費，因而排擠一般消費財的消費，使消費財的產出下降。;This thesis develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that includes a housing market and a rental market. The purpose of this research is to analyze the effects of various housing policies on the Taiwanese economy using calibration. Three main findings are documented. First, when the loan-to-value ratio is lifted, the price and quantity of houses rise and the rental price declines. As landlords spend more on houses, it crowds out private consumption. Secondly, raising the tax rate imposed on property causes the holding cost of houses to be higher, which leads to a decline in housing consumption and a rise in consumption of goods. Thirdly, when the rent allowance increases, higher demand in the rental market drives up the rent and encourages landlords to invest more in real estate. As households spend more in the housing market, the consumption goods sector is negatively impacted and shrinks.
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