本研究以桃園臺地為研究區域，探討氣候變遷與土地利用變化對熱舒適度的影響。本研究透過歷史數據分析、實地觀測與未來氣候變遷情境模擬，包含三個部分：(1) 於中大校園進行實地觀測，計算不同鋪面條件的生理等效溫度 (Physiological Equivalent Temperature, PET)，評估遮蔽對熱舒適度的改善效益、白天及夜晚影響PET之主要因素；(2) 分析桃園臺地1993至2022年間PET歷史變化，結合土地利用變遷與人口變化之分群分析，評估土地利用變遷及人口變化對PET之影響；(3) 使用未來氣候變遷情境，推估桃園臺地及不同鋪面類型的PET變化趨勢。 研究結果顯示，白天PET主要受黑球溫度影響，夜晚則以風速為主；歷史數據分析顯示，桃園臺地的PET上升與不透水鋪面增加和人口增長高度相關，其中，不透水鋪面增加的影響尤為顯著。未來氣候變遷模擬顯示，所有情境下桃園臺地熱舒適度均呈現上升趨勢，高排放情境可能達到「非常熱」的等級。透過此研究希望能提供未來改善熱舒適的調適提供參考。 ;This study focuses on the Taoyuan Plateau, investigating the impacts of climate change, land use changes, and population growth on thermal comfort. Through historical data analysis, field observations, and future climate change scenario simulations, this study contains three parts: (1) In-situ observations at the National Central University campus to calculate Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET) under different pavement conditions, evaluating the benefits of shading on thermal comfort and identifying key factors affecting PET values during the day and night; (2) Analyzing PET changes of the Taoyuan Plateau from 1993 to 2022 in association with changes of land use and population by different clusters to assess their influence on PET values; (3) Calculating projections of PET trends for the Taoyuan Plateau and various pavement types under future climate change scenarios. The results reveal that daytime PET is primarily affected by mean radiant temperature, while nighttime PET is highly related to wind speed. Historical data of the Taoyuan Plateau show a strong correlation between rising PET and increases in impervious surfaces and population, with impervious surfaces having a particularly significant impact. Future simulations indicate an upward trend in thermal discomfort across all scenarios, with high-emission scenarios potentially reaching "very hot" levels. This research aims to provide scientific information to support the development of thermal comfort adaptation. Keywords: Thermal comfort, Physiologically Equivalent Temperature, Climate Change, Urban Heat Island Effect
