| 摘要: | 本研究探討中小企業貿易公司轉型兼營製造商的個案，應用現金流量折現法（Discounted Cash Flow, 簡稱DCF）之淨現值來評估個案公司的企業價值。經由四種情境之敏感性分析（Sensitivity Analysis）比較不同情境下之企業價值，為公司追求多角化轉型策略提供參考。
本研究收集並處理個案P公司過去五年的數據，參考個案公司財務報表及營運策略，推演編製個案公司未來十二年的營運成長指標及現金流量表，並以合理推估之加權平均資金成本進行折現。本研究之個案P公司確屬具有潛力的企業，其2021年度營收突破新台幣5億元，遠超過中小企業2021年統計數字的新台幣8仟萬元；本研究對該公司其進行綜合評估，結果顯示為若個案企業無法持續進步及改善，在貿易版圖及市佔率遽增的情況下，因代工廠無法同步成長，導致不良率大幅提升且供貨速度延期，反而可能被公司創造的業績吞噬。因此，多角化經營被認為是企業保持競爭力和持續發展的必要策略。
為了解決此一難題，個案P公司成立子C公司以併購上游製造商。本研究假設企業將永續發展，運用現金流量折現法評估企業價值，並使用敏感性分析評估投資效益。結果顯示，首先，即使在最樂觀情境下，單獨評估投資該子公司之淨現值仍為負值（-14,844仟元）。但兩公司合併後，使在最悲觀的情境下，投資子C公司仍對P公司的整體（合併後）價值有正面影響；亦合併後的P公司淨現值由合併前之470,752仟元提高至717,281仟元，亦即公司價值增幅至少為52%以上。
;This study explores a case of a small and medium-sized trade company transitioning into a manufacturer, using the Net Present Value （NPV） method through Discounted Cash Flow （DCF） to evaluate the company’s enterprise value. By conducting sensitivity analysis under four different scenarios, it compares the enterprise values to provide references for the case company’s pursuit of diversification transformation strategies.
This study collected and processed data from the Case of Company P over the past five years, referencing its financial statements and operational strategies to project and compile the company′s operational growth indicators and cash flow statements for the next twelve years, using a reasonable estimate of the weighted average cost of capital for discounting. Company P, as analyzed in this study, is indeed a company with significant potential. Its 2021 revenue exceeded NT$500 million, far surpassing the NT$80 million average reported for small and medium-sized enterprises in 2021. The comprehensive assessment conducted in this study indicates that if the company fails to continue improving and making progress, the rapid expansion in trade footprint and market share could lead to increased defect rates and delays in delivery due to the incapability of manufacturing plants to scale up concurrently. This could result in the company′s growth being negatively impacted. Therefore, diversification is considered a necessary strategy for the case company to maintain competitiveness and achieve sustainable development.
To address this issue, the Company P established a subsidiary C by acquireing an upstream manufacturer. This study assumes the company will continue to develop sustainably, using the DCF method to evaluate enterprise value and sensitivity analysis to assess investment effectiveness. The results show that, even in the most optimistic scenario, the standalone NPV of investing in the subsidiary is still negative （-14,844 thousand NTD）. However, after the merger, even in the most pessimistic scenario, investing in subsidiary C positively impacts the overall value of P company （post-merger）. That is, the NPV of P company increases from 470,752 thousand NTD before the merger to 717,281 thousand NTD after the merger, representing at least a 52% increase in enterprise value. |
