| 摘要: | 企業透過併購擴大規模的同時，如何評估併購價格的合理性成為了關鍵的問題。
合理的收購價格直接影響到股東的利益，因此對於收購價格的評估至關重要。本研究
將探討開發金控完全收購中國人壽後的效益成果，並進一步分析開發金第三次併購中
國人壽時的實際收購價格是否合理。為此，本研究運用了市場法（包括本益比法及股
價淨值比法）和收益法（以現金流量折現法為主）兩種評價方法，來計算企業價值，
並對比分析這些方法對實際收購價格的適用性。
根據實證結果，收益法（現金流量折現法）更能貼近實際收購價格，顯示其在併
購案例中的應用效果較為精確。此外，當進一步進行同業加權平均資金成本
（Weighted Average Cost of Capital, WACC）比較時，發現WACC的大小對企業價值的
影響呈現反向關係。具體來說，當WACC較高時，企業價值較低；而當WACC較低時，
企業價值則較大。這表明WACC作為評估企業價值的關鍵指標，具有顯著影響。
除了WACC外，成長率也是評估企業價值的重要因素。研究發現，成長率與企業
價值呈正向關係，成長率越高，企業價值也隨之增大；反之，成長率較低時，企業價
值則相對較小。因此，WACC及成長率的高低對企業價值的影響不容忽視，這些因素
在實際併購評估過程中需要被充分考慮。
綜合說明，收益法在本研究中顯示出較高的適用性，並且WACC與成長率對企業
價值的影響揭示了併購評價中需關注的核心因素。這些發現不僅對開發金控併購中國
人壽的案例具有參考意義，也為未來類似併購案件的評價提供了理論支持。;As companies expand their scale through mergers and acquisitions, how to evaluate the
rationality of merger and acquisition prices has become a key issue. A reasonable acquisition
price directly affects the interests of shareholders, so the evaluation of the acquisition price is
crucial. This study will explore the benefits of Kaifa Financial Holdings’ complete acquisition
of China Life, and further analyze whether the actual purchase price of Kaifa Financial
Holdings’ third acquisition of China Life is reasonable. To this end, this study uses two
evaluation methods： the market method （including the price-to-earnings ratio method and
the stock price-to-net value ratio method） and the income method （mainly the discounted
cash flow method） to calculate the value of the enterprise, and comparatively analyzes the
impact of these methods on Applicability of the actual purchase price.
According to empirical results, the income method （discounted cash flow method）
can be closer to the actual acquisition price, showing that its application effect in M&A cases
is more accurate. In addition, when further comparing the weighted average cost of capital
（WACC） of peers, it was found that the size of WACC has an inverse relationship with the
impact of corporate value. Specifically, when WACC is higher, the enterprise value is lower;
when WACC is lower, the enterprise value is larger. This shows that WACC, as a key indicator
for evaluating corporate value, has a significant impact.
In addition to WACC, growth rate is also an important factor in assessing corporate
value. Research has found that there is a positive relationship between growth rate and
corporate value. The higher the growth rate, the greater the corporate value; conversely, when
the growth rate is low, the corporate value is relatively small. Therefore, the impact of WACC
and growth rate on corporate value cannot be ignored, and these factors need to be fully
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considered in the actual merger and acquisition evaluation process.
To sum up, the income method shows high applicability in this study, and the impact of
WACC and growth rate on corporate value reveals the core factors that need to be paid
attention to in M&A evaluation. These findings not only have reference significance for
developing cases of financial holdings’ mergers and acquisitions of China Life, but also
provide theoretical support for the evaluation of similar mergers and acquisitions cases in the
future. |
