| 摘要: | 碳捕捉、利用與封存（CCUS）一直被視為緩解氣候變遷的重要選項之一。然而，CCUS專案的經濟可行性仍具有不確定性，這樣的狀況阻礙了潛在的投資與 CCUS 的建設發展。本研究提出以發電廠本身及合作各方的商業模式設計以界定 CCUS 改造的成本和收入來源，並使用淨現值（NPV）計算方法對台灣林口火力燃煤發電廠進行經濟評估。此外，本研究設定了一個基本利率，並且在專案期間的某些情景中根據五個風險調整因素進行調整，形成一個動態的利率組合。最後本研究還進行了因素以及其比率敏感性分析，以找出在專案期間影響經濟價值的重要因素。
情境分析的結果顯示，政策機制和政府支持以及國內碳定價機制在 CCUS專案成功中扮演著最重要的角色。另外即使面臨強烈反對或公眾接受度低，CCUS 專案仍具有經濟可行性，但其經濟價值會因此而大幅下降。在因素敏感性分析中，碳定價水準、碳信用額分配方法、二氧化碳利用方法等因素，都在CCUS 的專案成功中起著至關重要的作用。在因素比率敏感性分析中，發電容量下降率、碳定價上升率、碳信用額下降率、二氧化碳封存與利用比率、CCUS 成本減少率以及二氧化碳排放捕捉率等因素皆為 CCUS 專案的成敗關鍵。
本研究建議未來研究應利用實際數據，設計更複雜的情景，探索因素之間的互動，並開發更精細的風險量化方法，以計算 CCUS 的專案真實價值。
關鍵字：碳捕捉、利用與封存(CCUS)、商業模式設計、經濟評估分析、淨現值 (NPV)、情境分析、因子敏感性分析;Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) has been viewed as an important option to mitigate climate change. However, the economic feasibility of CCUS remains uncertain and hinders potential investment and the deployment of CCUS projects. This study proposes the business model design to define the costs and revenue streams in the CCUS construction, including the plant itself and other parties, and conducts an economic evaluation for the Linkou coal-fired power plant in Taiwan employing the Net Present Value (NPV) calculation method. In the analysis, a basic rate is set to be adjusted during the project period in a certain scenario with five risk adjustment factors, creating a dynamic rate trend. The factor sensitivity analysis is also conducted to find the important factors influencing the economic value during the project.
The results in the scenario analysis show that the policy mechanisms and government support as well as the domestic carbon pricing mechanism play the most important role in the success of the CCUS project. The CCUS project is still economically viable even with strong opposition, or a low public acceptance, but the value can decrease dramatically. In the sensitivity analysis, the factors, including operation capacity decrease rate, the carbon price level, its decline rate, the carbon quota allocation methods, the CO2 utilization method, the CO2 storage to utilization ratio, the CCUS cost reduction rate, and the capture rate of CO2 emission, all plays vital roles in the success of the CCUS project.
Future works are suggested to utilize empirical data, design more complex scenarios, discover the interaction between the factors, and develop a more sophisticated risk quantification method to evaluate the real value of CCUS projects.
Keywords: Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS), Business Model Design, Economic Evaluation, Net Present Value (NPV), Scenario Analysis, Factor Sensitivity Analysis |
