多準則決策之應用-以雷射半導體產業為例

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姓名

陸重生(Chung-Sheng Lu) 查詢紙本館藏

畢業系所

工業管理研究所在職專班

論文名稱

多準則決策之應用-以雷射半導體產業為例

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摘要(中)

確定性環境、風險環境和不確定性環境是決策者在做決策評估方案時，首要考量的因素。決策者不怕知道風險的機率為何，因為雖然不知道事件會發生的結果，但是有辦法了解事件結果的各種可能性。決策者就怕掌握不到未來的結果的資訊，無法知道所有可能發生的結果。因此，決策者在做決策時，對於其所考慮的決策環境必須掌握清楚並且要能有效率及正確的使用決策機制，才不至於浪費時間又做錯決定。
本研究使用多準則決策(Multi-criterion Decision Making; MCDM)中的量化準則評估法之方法，並整理參考相關的文獻，依據決策理論中多準則決策的方法，採用大中取大(maximax)、小中取大(maximin)、大中取小遺憾(minimax regret)、Hurwicz、Laplace及期望值等準則作為理論基礎，深入探討這些方法的特性及使用時機，以發展出企業的方案決定評估準則。藉由一實際個案，以不同的情境條件及企業方案，配合運用多準則決策模式為評估方法，以找出最適合的決策方案。本研究結果顯示，個案公司經由多準則決策之模式為評估方法，可有效決定適用之企業方案，並對即將使用多準則決策方法的後進者提供具體的指南，及對後續研究提出建議，作為其他公司遇到相似情況時的決策方法。

摘要(英)

The environment of uncertainty, risk and uncertainty are the primary consideration factors of evaluating alternatives when decision makers are in decision making. Decision makers are not afraid to know the probability of risk, because they could know the probability of each result though they don’t know what result will come out. Decision makers are afraid of not knowing anything about future and about possible result. Therefore, decision makers should know fully well about the decision environment and to use decision-making method effectively and correctly, otherwise they will not only waste of time but also make wrong decisions.
In light of this, several theories of the rule of quantitative evaluation methods and multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) methgods are quoted in this paper. By using the Maximax, Minimax, Minimax Regret, Hurwicz, Laplace and Expected Value methods from MCDM, this paper could summarize these methods to provide decision makers how to optimize decisions and help enterprises to develop the assessment of decision plan. This paper, by structuring a decision problem into various actions under consideration and states of nature describing, with the introducing of MCDM models, tried to find an appropriate alternatives. As a result, by using MCDM methods as the assessment plan on projects, the company mentioned in this paper could solve their decision problems effectively. And, this paper could also give instructions of decision-making to the followers and companies in similar situation they might have in the future.

關鍵字(中)

★ 雷射二極體
★ 多準則決策
★ 替代方案

關鍵字(英)

★ Laser diode
★ multi-criteria decision making
★ alternatives

論文目次

中文摘要 I
Abstract II
誌謝 III
目錄 IV
第一章緒論 1
1-1 研究背景 1
1-2 研究動機與目的 3
1-3 研究範圍 4
1-4 研究架構 4
1-5 論文架構與研究流程 5
第二章文獻探討 7
2-1 決策分析 7
2-2 多準則決策 11
2-3 決策環境 15
2-4 決策方法 17
2-4-1 確定環境下之決策 17
2-4-2 不確定環境下之決策 18
2-4-3 風險環境下之決策 22
2-4-4 完整資訊之期望值(Expected Value of Perfect Information，EVPI) 23
第三章產業現況及個案公司介紹 25
3-1 產業現況分析 25
3-1-1 產業背景 25
3-1-2 雷射源介紹 26
3-1-3 雷射二極體特性 27
3-2 個案公司介紹 31
3-2-1 個案公司基本資料 31
3-2-2 個案公司五力分析 32
3-2-3 個案公司物流策略 34
3-2-4 個案公司決策程序 34
第四章個案研究 35
4-1 研究方法 35
4-2 決策方案 35
4-2-1 決策情境 36
4-2-2 方案內容 36
4-2-3 方案之效益評估 37
4-3 不同環境下的決策 39
4-3-1 確定環境下做決策 39
4-3-2 不確定環境下做決策 40
4-3-3 風險環境下做決策 48
4-3-4 完整資訊之期望值(EVPI) 49
4-4 小結 51
第五章結論 53
5-1 研究結果 53
5-2 研究限制 54
5-3 研究建議 54
參考文獻 55

參考文獻

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指導教授

王啟泰(Chi-Tai Wang)

審核日期

2013-7-15

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