事故隨機發生下高速公路警車排程最適化之研究

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婁自強(Tze-Chiang Lou) 查詢紙本館藏

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土木工程學系

論文名稱

事故隨機發生下高速公路警車排程最適化之研究
(Optimizing the Scheduling and Dispatching of Freeway Police Patrols Under Stochastic Accident Occurrence)

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摘要(中)

國道高速公路為陸路運輸動脈，交通事故為主要壅塞原因之一，若提升事故處理績效，能減少延誤與降低衍生事故發生風險。故本研究在不增加警力等資源條件下，以警車排程最適化規劃，改善勤務編排與派遣方式，縮短事故到場時間，加速事故處理，達成交通安全與順暢等目的。
本研究先以95年國道1號及3號事故，作巨觀角度統計分析並對其事故特性、派遣作業及勤務狀況作相關、單因子變異數分析。得除到場時間與事故嚴重性無關、勤務班次數與事故次數有明顯相關外，餘者未發現清晰關聯；此外，發現事故處理時各階段所耗用時間等，可作為後續研究參數。
續以微觀角度剖析警車到場影響因素，得勤務編排、派遣及事故特性等均為影響因素，且亦會相互影響，難以單一方案有效處理。故以二階段處理較為允當，先建構勤務編排模式，後發展調整派遣模擬，解決警車排程問題。
第一階段勤務編排模式，目的為編排足夠勤務班次，以因應事故隨機發生處理。當模式求解後，其結果得編排勤務時數及班表。第二階段勤務派遣模擬，可將前得勤務班表，並配合所擬研動、靜2類型中各4種勤務派遣方案，併同輸入並進行模擬。此外，此模擬亦能依設定分配，產生事故模擬資料，以測試勤務模擬績效。而模擬績效以到場時間、支援班次、加班時數及效益等為指標。
最後，以泰山分隊作為實例分析，經模擬後相關指標綜合排序，得信賴水準為99%時勤務班表派遣模擬績效最佳及依事故率、依事故次數派遣方案二者併列最優。此外，亦發現靜態勤務不易受勤務編排影響及到場時間、支援班次、加班時數正相關係數甚高，顯示三者具有共同趨勢。本研究所建構模式與模擬亦可運用於高速公路其他分隊。

摘要(英)

Freeways form the primary traffic corridor in Taiwan, and traffic accidents are a major cause of traffic congestion. By increasing the speed of the processes for handling traffic accidents, unexpected delays and the risk of derivational accidents can be reduced. To shorten response time and improve the efficiency of accident processing, this study schedules and allocates police patrols using an optimization method to enhance traffic safety and order.
First, data of all accidents occurring on National Highway No. 1 and No. 3 in 2006 were collected. The accident characteristics, accident responses, and shift scheduling were analyzed using correlation coefficients and ANOVA. Following these analyses, this study determined the following two conclusions: (1) No relationship exists between the response time and accident severity; and (2) a significant and positive quantity relationship exists between shift scheduling and accidents. Additionally, every stage of the accident processing procedure was identified. These data will form the parameters of future research.
Second, through further research, the response time was found to be influenced by three factors, as follows: the accident characteristics, accident response, and shift scheduling, which interact with each other. Achieving optimal scheduling and dispatching under complex factors using only one method is difficult. Therefore, this study employs a two-stage method to solve this problem. The first stage involves creating a chance-constrained optimization model for scheduling by using the minimal patrol units to meet the demands of accident handling. The second stage involves creating a dispatch simulation, which can simulate the operation of a police car under current conditions and evaluate the effectiveness. Additionally, eight patrol patterns, including moving and stationary patterns, are also inputted in the simulation. Indices are established for response time, extra supportive patrol units, extra work hours, and utility.
Third, the Taishan platoon was chosen as the case study. The simulation results led to two conclusions: (1) the optimal patrol schedule occurs at a confidence level of 99 %; and (2) the optimal patrol patterns are achieved by c based on accident frequency and rate. These values are evaluated using a composite index that integrates response time, extra supportive patrol units, extra work hours. Additionally, the correlation coefficients among above three indices are positive and near 1. These results also imply that they follow the same trend. The results of this study can provide a useful reference for other traffic enforcement agencies affected by similar conditions.

關鍵字(中)

★ 到場時間
★ 勤務編排
★ 派遣
★ 模擬

關鍵字(英)

★ simulation
★ response time
★ scheduling
★ dispatching

論文目次

目錄
第一章緒論 1
1.1研究動機 1
1.2研究目的 2
1.3研究對象與範圍 2
1.4研究內容 3
1.5研究方法與流程 5
第二章文獻回顧 7
2.1勤務編排相關文獻 7
2.1.1車輛排程 7
2.1.2人員排班 8
2.1.3隨機性需求擾動 10
2.2勤務派遣相關文獻 14
2.2.1派遣區位與事故前派遣最佳位置 15
2.2.2事故（前）發生時派遣路線與策略 17
2.2.3警力分布與勤務部署 21
2.3事故（件）流程與派遣處理模擬相關文獻 24
2.4文獻評析 27
第三章高速公路事故特性及事故處理作業分析 29
3.1高速公路事故分布分析 30
3.2事故特性與交通量影響分析 31
3.3事故到場與清除現況分析 39
第四章警車排程問題因應策略分析 55
4.1警車排程作業分析 55
4.2警車排程問題因應策略 60
第五章勤務編排模式建構 63
5.1模式構建 63
5.2參數設定 68
5.3模式測試 71
5.4小結 72
第六章勤務派遣模擬建構 73
6.1現行勤務派遣方式 73
6.2.模擬情境設定 73
6.3模擬架構與流程 74
6.4模擬模組 77
6.5勤務派遣方案研擬 86
6.6模擬視窗介面 87
6.7模擬驗證 91
第七章實例分析 98
7.1現況分析 98
7.2 勤務編排結果分析 103
7.3績效評估指標 109
7.4勤務派遣模擬績效評估 111
7.5 勤務派遣方案評估 118
7.5.1 到場時間分析 119
7.5.2支援班次分析 126
7.5.3加班時數分析 128
7.5.4 效益分析 131
7.5.5 方案比較分析 133
第八章結論與建議 136
8.1結論 136
8.2建議 138
參考文獻140

參考文獻

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指導教授

吳健生(Jiann-Sheng Wu)

審核日期

2011-8-23

推文