台灣地區風速降低對風力發電影響之評估

以作者查詢圖書館館藏

、以作者查詢臺灣博碩士

、以作者查詢全國書目

、勘誤回報

、線上人數：22

、訪客IP：18.219.25.226

姓名

張育峯(Yu-Feng Chang) 查詢紙本館藏

畢業系所

土木工程學系

論文名稱

台灣地區風速降低對風力發電影響之評估
(Influences of Wind Speed Decline on Wind Energy Production in Taiwan)

相關論文

★ 定剪力流中二維平板尾流之風洞實驗	★ 以大渦紊流模式模擬不同流況對二維方柱尾流之影響
★ 矩形建築物高寬比對其周遭風場影響之研究	★ 台灣地區風速機率分佈之研究
★ 邊界層中雙棟並排矩形建築之表面風壓量測	★ 排放角度與邊牆效應對浮昇射流影響之實驗研究
★ 低層建築物表面風壓之實驗研究	★ 圓柱體形建築物表面風壓之實驗研究
★ 最大熵值理論在紊流剪力流上之應用	★ 應用遺傳演算法探討海洋放流管之優化方案
★ 均勻流中圓柱體形建築物表面風壓之風洞實驗	★ 大氣與森林之間紊流流場之風洞實驗
★ 以歐氏-拉氏法模擬煙流粒子在建築物尾流區中的擴散	★ 以HHT分析法研究陣風風場中建築物之表面風壓
★ 以HHT時頻分析法研究陣風風場中物體所受之風力	★ 風吹落物之軌跡預測模式與實驗研究

檔案

[Endnote RIS 格式]

[Bibtex 格式]

[相關文章]

[文章引用]

[完整記錄]

[館藏目錄]

[檢視]

[下載]

本電子論文使用權限為同意立即開放。
已達開放權限電子全文僅授權使用者為學術研究之目的，進行個人非營利性質之檢索、閱讀、列印。
請遵守中華民國著作權法之相關規定，切勿任意重製、散佈、改作、轉貼、播送，以免觸法。

摘要(中)

本研究利用Mann-Kendall法檢視台灣地區1961-2008年間中央氣象局地面觀測站的地表風速之長期變化趨勢。研究結果顯示：無論都會區或非都會區，1974年之後，大多數測站全年平均風速及冬季季風風速皆有明顯地變小趨勢。因為都市化效應(Urbanization)的緣故，都會區的風速遞減趨勢大於非都會區的遞減趨勢，且無都市化效應的離島地區(蘭嶼、彭佳嶼和東吉島)全年及冬季的強風發生機率亦有逐年下降的趨勢。本研究亦針對颱風侵台期間的地表風速加以分析，結果發現颱風侵台期間的最大風速及全台平均風速皆呈現遞減的長期變化趨勢。本研究並計算百分位數(percentile)的風速趨勢，發現大多數地區的10th、25th、50th、75th、90th風速的百分位數呈現下降的趨勢。高風速下降率尤其特別明顯。此下降趨勢都與其他國家風速變化趨勢的結果相似。
除此之外，本研究並利用台灣地區的風速資料分析風力發電的變化趨勢，本研究採用兩種不同的方式估算風力發電量，第一種方式依據地面實測風速1961~2008年的歷史資料與風機的性能曲線計算風力發電量，第二種方式依據韋伯機率函數與風機的性能曲線積分求得風力發電量。本研究計算未受到都市化影響的測站：東吉島、蘭嶼與梧棲的風能潛勢，再分析澎湖中屯風力發電廠2002~2009年的實測風力發電量，研究結果發現兩種方式計算得之風力發電量的下降趨勢，東吉島的下降率為-2.25% decade-1，蘭嶼為-8.06% decade-1，梧棲為-26.98% decade-1。離島地區的下降趨勢小於海岸地區的下降趨勢。

摘要(英)

This study used the Mann-Kandall test to check to long term trend of surface wind speeds in Taiwan during the period of 1961-2008. It was found that the annual mean wind speeds of most stations after 1974 have a decreasing trend. But the decrease rate of urbanized area 0.155 m s-1decade-1 (-6.18 % decade-1) is larger than that of rural area 0.135 m s-1 decade-1 (-3.14 % decade-1). The mean wind speeds of winter months (November – February) also demonstrate a negative trend in most meteorological stations. In addition, the maximum wind speeds and average wind speeds during the typhoon-invaded periods all show a steady decline.
Then the long term trend of wind power potential in Taiwan was analyzed. The wind power potentials of three stations: Dong-Ji Islet, Lan-Yu Islet and Wu-Chi were calculated by using the two-parameter Weibull probability function and the performance curve on a wind turbine. The parameters in Weibull function were determined by method of moment from the hourly wind speed data between 1961~2008. The results indicate that the wind power potential also show declining trend for all three stations, the decrease rate are around -2.25% decade-1 in Dong-Ji Islet, -8.06% decade-1 in Lan-Yu Islet and -26.98% decade-1 in Wu-Chi, respectively. The decreasing rate of the island and off-shore is less than of the coastal area.

關鍵字(中)

★ 地面風速
★ 風力發電
★ 長期趨勢
★ 氣候變遷

關鍵字(英)

★ Wind speed decline
★ Long term trend
★ Wind energy
★ Weibull distribution

論文目次

Abstract I
Contents III
Notation IV
Table captions VI
Figure captions VII
1. Introduction 1
2. Materials and methods 3
3. Long-term trend of wind speed 5
3.1 Trend of surface wind speed 5
3.2 Mann-Kendall test 8
3.3 Percentiles of wind speed 9
4. Trend of wind power 10
4.1 Wind power potential 10
4.2 Yearly wind power characteristics 14
5. Conclusions 15
References 18
Tables 21
Figures 35

參考文獻

Burton, T., Sharpe, D., Jenkins, N., and Bossanyi, E. (2001) Wind energy handbook. West Sussex, UK: John Wiley & Sons.
Balouktsis, A., Chassapis, D., and Karapantsios, T.D. (2002) A nomogram method for estimating the energy produced by wind turbine generators. Solar Energy, 72(3), 251-59.
Chang, T.J., Wu, Y.T., Hsu, H.Y., Chu, C.R., and Liao, C.M. (2003) Assessment of Wind Characteristic and Wind Turbine Characteristic in Taiwan. Renewable Energy, 28, 851-871.
Chase, T.N., Knaff, J.A., Pielke Sr., R.A., and Kalnay,E. (2003) Changes in Global Monsoon Circulations Since 1950. Natural Hazards, 29, 229–254.
Chu, C. R., Li, M. H., Chen, Y. Y., and Kuo, Y. H. (2010) A wind tunnel experiment on the evaporation rate of Class A evaporation pan. Journal of Hydrology, 381(3-4), 221-224.
Durak, M., and Sen, Z. (2002) Wind power potential in Turkey and Akhisar case study. Renewable Energy, 25, 463-472.
Emanuel, K.A. (2005) Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years, Nature, 436, 686-688.
Elsner, B.J., Kossin, J.P., and Jagger, T.H. (2009) The increasing intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones. Nature, 455, 92-95.
Enercon—Germany Wind Technology, Inc. Manufacturer’s brochure, 2002.
Gilbert, R.O. (1987) Statistical methods for environmental pollution monitoring. Van Nostrand Reinhold, New York.
Hamed, K.H. (2008) Trend detection in hydrologic data: The Mann–Kendall trend test under the scaling hypothesis. Journal of Hydrology, 349, 350-363.
Hobbins, M. T. (2004) Regional evapotranspiration and pan evaporation: complementary interactions and long-term trends across the conterminous United States, Ph.D. thesis, Colo. State Univ., Fort Collins.
Jiang, Y., Luo, Y., Zhao, Z., and Tao, S., (2010) Changes in wind speed over China during 1956–2004. Theor Appl Climatol., 99, 421-430.
Jamil, M., Parsa, S., Majidi, M. (1995) Wind power statistics and an evaluation of wind energy density. Renewable energy, 6(5), 623-28.
Jangamshetti S.H., and Rau, V.G. (1999) Site matching of wind turbine generators: a case study. IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion, 14(4), 1537-43.
Klink, K. (1999) Trends in mean monthly maximum and minimum surface wind speeds in the coterminous United States, 1961 to 1990. Climate Research, 13, 193-205.
Keyhani, A., Ghasemi-Varnamkhasti, M., Khanali, M., and Abbaszadeh, R. (2010) An assessment of wind energy potential as a power generation source in the capital of Iran, Tehran. Energy, 35, 188-201.
Kendall, M.G. (1975) Rank correlation methods, 4th ed. Charles Griffin, London.
Lu, L., Yang, H., and Burnett, J. (2002) Investigation on wind power potential on Hong Kong islands—an analysis of wind power and wind turbine characteristics. Renewable Energy, 27, 1-12.
Lin, C.Y., Lung, S.C., Guo, H.R., Wu, P.C. and Su, H.J. (2009) Climate variability of cold surge and its impact on the air quality of Taiwan. Climatic Change, 94, 457-471.
McVicar, T.M., Van Niel, T.G., Li, L.T., Roderick, M.L., Rayner, D.P., Ricciardulli, L., and Donohue, R.J., (2008) Wind speed climatology and trends for Australia, 1975-2006: Capturing the stilling phenomenon and comparison with near surface reanalysis output. Geophysical Research Letters, 35, L20403.
Mathew, S., Pandey, K.P., and Kumar, A. (2002) Analysis of wind regimes for energy estimation. Renewable energy, 25, 381-99.
Pirazzoli, P.A., and Tomasin, A. (2003) Recent near-surface wind changes in the central Mediterranean and Adriatic areas. Int. J. Climatol., 23, 963-973.
Pryor, S.C., Barthelmie, R.J., Young, D.T., Takle, E.S., Arritt, R.W., Flory, D., Gutowski, W.J., Nunes, A., and Roads, J. (2009) Wind speed trends over the contiguous United States, J. Geophysical Research, 114, D14105.
Pryor, S.C., and Barthelmie, R.J. (2010) Climate change impacts on wind energy,: A review. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 14. 430-437.
Rayner, D.P. (2007) Wind run changes: The dominant factor affecting pan evaporation trends in Australia, Journal of Climate, 20, 3379-3394.
Rosen, K.R., Van Buskirk, R., and Garbesi, K. (1999) wind energy potential of coastal Eritrea: an analysis of sparse wind data. Solar Energy, 66(3), 201-13.
Roderick, M. L., and G. D. Farquhar (2005), Changes in New Zealand pan evaporation since the 1970s, Int. J. Climatol., 25, 2031– 2039.
Roderick, M.L., Rotstayn, L.D., Farquhar, G.D., and Hobbins, M.T. (2007) On the attribution of changing pan evaporation. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 34, L17403, doi:10.1029/2007GL031166.
Stevens, M.J.M., and Smulders, P.T. (1979) The estimation of parameters of the Weibull wind speed distribution for wind energy utilization purposes. Wind Engineering, 3(2), 132-45.
Shenbin, C., L. Yunfeng, and A. Thomas (2006) Climatic change on the Tibetan plateau: Potential evapotranspiration trends from 1961– 2000, Clim. Change, 76, 291–319.
Shi, N. (1996) Features of the east Asian winter monsoon intensity on multiple time scale in recent 40 years and their relation to climate, Quart. J. App. Met. 7, 175–182.
Tuller, S.E. (2004) Measured wind speed trends on the west coast of Canada, Int. J. Climatol., 24, 1359-1374.
Turner, J., S. R. Colwell, G. J. Marshall, T. A. Lachlan-Cope, A. M. Carleton, P. D. Jones, V. Lagun, P. A. Reid, and S. Iagovkina (2005) Antarctic climate change during the last 50 years, Int. J. Climatol., 25, 279– 294.
Wang, H. (2001) The weakening of the Asian monsoon circulation after the end of 1970’s. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 18(3), 376-386.
Webster, P.J., Holland, G.J., Curry, J.A., and Chang, H.-R. (2005) Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration and intensity in a warming environment, Science, 309, 1844-1846.
Xu, M., Chang, C.-P., Fu, C., Qi, Y., Robock, A., Robinson, D., and Zhang, H. (2006) Steady decline of East Asian Monsoon winds, 1969-2000: Evidence from direct ground measurements of wind speed, J. Geophysical Research, 111, D24111.
Zhou, W., Yang, H. and Fang, Z. (2006) Wind power potential and characteristic analysis of the Pearl River Delta region, China. Renewable Energy, 31, 739-753.
Zhang, Y., C. Liu, Y. Tang, and Y. Yang (2007), Trends in pan evaporation and reference and actual evapotranspiration across the Tibetan plateau, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D12110, doi:10.1029/2006JD008161.
蔡益超，林宗賢 (1984) 建築物所受風力規範研擬，國科會防災科技研究報告，NSC73-0414-P002-04.
莊月璇 (2001) 台灣地區風速機率分佈之研究，國立中央大學土木工程研究所碩士論文

指導教授

朱佳仁(Chia-Ren Chu)

審核日期

2012-7-18

推文