加勒比海地區開發中國家發展風力發電之經濟評估：以聖文森的風力發電場計畫為例

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安德雷(Andre David Williams) 查詢紙本館藏

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國際永續發展碩士在職專班

論文名稱

加勒比海地區開發中國家發展風力發電之經濟評估：以聖文森的風力發電場計畫為例
(An Economic Evaluation of Wind Energy Development in the Developing Caribbean Region: A Case Study of a Proposed Wind Farm Project in St. Vincent)

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摘要(中)

風能的利用年年激增,可以從例證：2000年的18.5億瓦（GW）到2010年199.5億瓦(GW)，得知它已成為今天增長最快的可再生能源的來(RES）。而負責這樣快速增長的催化驅動力，則主要是由於風力發電機組設計的技術進步和安裝成本的減少。風能的開發在已開發國家中被完全地協調與融合，它已成為其能源組成結構中的一個內在成分。然而，在加勒比海地區（CR）的小島嶼發展中國家，哪裡的條件極利於煽動風能的開發，其風能之利用卻是相當稀少。今日，在許多加勒比海地區（CR）的島嶼中，其中包括聖文森特和格林納丁斯（SVG），他們正在探索風能發展的前景。
本論文主旨在於評估：在聖文森特和格林納丁斯（SVG）風能發展的經濟和社會屬性。聖文森特和格林納丁斯（SVG）的政府的承諾之一則是在2015年時，電力部門的再生能源使用增加可達30％。因此，政府正計劃興建一座4兆瓦的風力電場，從而其經濟的評估則必須是重要傑出的，才能有利於評估其可行性。而該計畫方案中與經濟評估緊密相關的財務評估，就須採用成本效益分析的工具。此外，源自於此計畫中相較於傳統發電所獲得的更進一步的經濟利益，如：化石燃料的節省，溫室氣體排放的大幅銳減，操作和維護成本的降低等，都進行了評估。公眾對於風能開發的態度和接納，可能並不總是優先的：加上考量到SVG的面積狹小，這項研究仍然以風能開發的社會期望值為焦點。故為了激發民眾的喜好，並確定他們對於風力電場的支付意願（WTP），假設市場評價法應用於本研究。此外，還有一些無法測量比較的利益和成本，都是在考慮電能的來源決策時非常重要的；則採用多準則決策分析（MCDA）來合併評估。
該計畫的初始安裝成本估計在550萬美元，其淨現值為10.4900萬美元，而內部收益率為11％，則給任何一個開發商指引出一個可行的冒險投機企業。經濟評估顯示，目前的總成本價值達780萬美元，而擁有超過28年的漫長生命週期的這項計畫，其相稱的利益總額卻可達11億美元。或然估值分析法中指出，公眾對於風能的傾向是積極的，而且他們對於風力電場的接受度也很高。此外，所有支付卡的分析中結果顯示，受訪者都願意支付（WTP）電費1年中用每月11.50美元，來支付初始安裝成本。匯總到聖文森特和格林納丁斯（SVG）總戶數的價值收益可達530萬美元，與風力電場的初始安裝成本極為接近。為了進一步加強對風能開發的支持，多準則決策分析(MCDA)的加權總和法則指出，風能應作為首選的替代能源。

摘要(英)

The use of wind energy has ballooned over the year as exemplified by the accretion from 18.5 gigawatts (GW) in 2000 to 199.5 GW in 2010 making it one of the fastest growing renewable energy sources (RES) today. The main catalytic drivers responsible for this rapid growth are technological advances in wind turbine designs and reduction in the setup cost. Wind energy development is mainly concerted in the developed countries and it has become an intrinsic part of their energy mix. However, the use of wind energy is exiguous in small island developing states in the Caribbean region (CR) where conditions are conducive to foment wind energy development. Today, many of the islands in the CR, including Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (SVG), are exploring the prospect of wind energy development.
This thesis aims to evaluate the economic and social attributes of wind energy development in SVG. One of the commitments by the Government of SVG is to increase the use of RES in the electricity sector to 30% by 2015. Consequently, the Government is planning to construct a 4 MW wind farm hence an economic evaluation is eminent to assess its viability. A financial assessment of the project is pertinent to the economic evaluation and hereof, the benefit-cost analysis tool was employed. In addition, further economic benefits to be derived from the project such as savings of fossil fuel, greenhouse gases abated, and the reduction in operation and maintenance cost compared to traditional power generation were evaluated. Public attitude and acceptance of wind energy development may not always be preferential and given the diminutive size of SVG, the research also focuses on the social desirability of wind energy development. To elicit the publics’ preferences and to ascertain their willingness to pay (WTP) for the wind farm, the Contingent Valuation Method was applied. Additionally, there are incommensurable benefits and cost which are vital to decision making when considering an energy source for electricity and the Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) was adopted to amalgamate them in the appraisement.
The initial setup cost of the project is estimated at US$5.5 million, with a net present value of US$104,900 (2013) and an internal rate of return of 11%, which designate a viable venture for any developer. The economic evaluation revealed that the present value of the total costs amounted to US$7.8 million while the commensurable benefits totalled US$28.8 million over the 20-year lifespan of the project. The analysis of the contingent valuation suggests that the public disposition to wind energy is positive and their acceptance of the wind farm is high. Furthermore, the payment card analysis showed that the respondents are WTP US$11.50 and US$10.39 a month for 1 year on their monthly electricity bill via the non-parametric and parametric approach respectively. This is equivalent to a present value of US$0.40 per kilowatt hour which is higher than the current cost of electricity of US$0.36. To further strengthen the support of wind energy development, the weighted sum method of the MCDA pointed to wind energy as the preferred alternative.

關鍵字(中)

★ 支付意願
★ 成本效益分析
★ 假設市場評價法
★ 多準則決策分析
★ 風能

關鍵字(英)

★ Benefit-Cost analysis
★ Contingent valuation method
★ Multi-criteria decision analysis
★ Wind energy
★ Willingness to pay.

論文目次

Table of Contents
Abstract i
摘要 iii
Acknowledgement v
List of Tables viii
List of Figures x
List of Acronyms and symbols xii
Chapter 1 Introduction 1
1.1 Overview and appraisal of wind energy development 1
1.2 Wind energy development in the developing Caribbean 3
1.3 Research motivation and objectives 4
1.4 Research difficulties 6
1.5 Background of study area 6
Chapter 2 Literature Review 14
2.1 Economic evaluation of wind energy 14
2.2 Benefit – Cost principle and application 17
2.3 Public attitude and acceptance towards wind farm and wind energy 21
2.3.1 Public acceptance of wind farms 21
2.3.2 Public attitude towards wind farm 24
2.3.3 Public attitude and acceptance of wind energy 26
2.4 Willingness to Pay 27
2.4.1 Contingent valuation method 30
2.5 Sustainability assessment of power sources using multi-criteria decsion analysis 35
Chapter 3 Methodology 39
3.1 Estimation of economic costs and benefits of the wind energy project 40
3.1.1 Financial assessment of the proposed wind farm using RETScreen 41
3.1.2 Sensitivity analysis 51
3.1.3 Estimation of additional benefit 51
3.2 Investigation of public attitude & acceptance and measurement of WTP for the construction of the wind farm 53
2.2.1 Surveying tools 54
3.2.2 Survey development 56
2.2.3 Survey implementation process 60
2.2.4 Data analysis 60
3.3 Multi-criteria decision analysis of the proposed wind farm 64
3.3.1 Criteria selection 65
3.3.2 Assignments of weights 66
3.3.3 Score assignment 66
Chapter 4 Results and Discussion 68
4.1 Financial appraisal of the proposed wind farm 68
4.1.1 Sensitivity Analysis 73
4.2 Economic assessment of the proposed wind farm 81
4.3 Public attitude and acceptance of wind energy development in SVG 87
4.3.1 Socio-economic characteristics 88
4.3.2 Attitude and concerns toward various energy source to produce electricity 89
4.3.3 Attitude and acceptance of wind power development 92
4.3.4 Awareness of wind power development in SVG 94
4.4 Willingness to pay for the construction of the wind farm 95
4.4.1 Estimation of Willingness-to-Pay 96
4.4.2 Expansion of Sample Estimates of WTP to Total Households in SVG 101
4.5 Multi-criteria decision analysis of the wind farm construction 102
Chapter 5 Conclusion and Recommendations 107
5.1 Conclusion 107
5.2 Recommendations 109
References 111
Appendix A 116
Appendix B 117
Appendix C 122

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指導教授

廖萬里(Wan-li Liao)

審核日期

2012-7-5

推文