中國出口對鄰近東亞國家之影響

以作者查詢圖書館館藏

、以作者查詢臺灣博碩士

、以作者查詢全國書目

、勘誤回報

、線上人數：17

、訪客IP：18.191.132.38

姓名

卓昆明(Kun-ming Jhuo) 查詢紙本館藏

畢業系所

經濟學系

論文名稱

中國出口對鄰近東亞國家之影響
(The impact of China on the exports of East Asian countries)

相關論文

★ 貿易自由化對中國對外出口之影響	★ 從產業關聯表檢視美國再工業化成效
★ 出口、外人直接投資與勞動產出份額：中國的實證研究	★ 技術變動對薪資影響之研究－以臺灣製造業為例
★ 高等教育投資值得嗎? 研究所教育報酬之探討	★ 中國旅遊需求分析：世界遺產的影響
★ 中國銀行效率分析	★ 遠來的和尚會念經？NBA球員之薪資與效率分析
★ 開放政策，人力資本與區域經濟發展─越南的實證研究	★ 環境管制、研發與生產力:台灣製造業實證研究
★ 國際經濟學的三篇實證研究	★ 國家研發效率與生產力之分析
★ 外人援助，貪污，與經濟成長：門檻迴歸模型的應用	★ Three essays on China's regional economic analysis
★ 要素配置、結構調整和生產力動態 —印尼製造業的研究	★ 運動經濟學的三篇實證研究

檔案

[Endnote RIS 格式]

[Bibtex 格式]

[相關文章]

[文章引用]

[完整記錄]

[館藏目錄]

至系統瀏覽論文 ( 永不開放)

摘要(中)

本文以引力模型估計在1995~2010年間，東亞國家出口的貿易量是否受到中國出口的影響：亦即，中國出口對東亞國家出口是替代還是互補關係。除了整體貿易外，在全球生產分工趨勢的考量下，將產品依照生產階段劃分為初級產品、中間產品與最終產品，分別檢視中國出口對東亞國家三種財貨的效果。
計量方法採用fixed effect vector decomposition (FEVD)，此模型可以解決不隨時間改變的變數在固定效果模型下無法估計的問題，而且更具有效率性。實證結果發現不存在排擠效果，中國出口對東亞國家是互補。在東亞地區的生產分工下，中國為最終產品的加工組裝中心，並且從鄰近東亞國家進口原物料和中間財。當中國最終財貨出口越多的時候，他從鄰近東亞國家進口越多的原物料和中間財。所以中國市場的擴張可以推動亞洲其他國家出口成長。

摘要(英)

This paper uses gravity model to explore whether the growth of China’s exports is displacing exports of other Asian countries during the period 1995-2010. In addition to total trade, we consider the trend in “production sharing” and further disaggregate total trade into primary goods, intermediate goods and final goods according to the production stage.
In order to control for the unobserved heterogeneity between two countries, it is good to use fixed-effect model. However, a common problem that arises when applying the FEM estimator to gravity models is that the within transformation does not give the estimates for the time-invariant variables. We overcome this limitation by applying the FEVD, a recent panel data technique that allows estimating the time-invariant variables. This estimator has also the advantage to improve the estimation efficiency for those variables with a relative low within variance.
Our empirical result shows that china’s export is complementary rather than substitute. The ongoing process of production fragmentation opens up opportunities for countries to specialize indifferent slices of the production process depending on their relative cost advantage. China plays a role as the final assembly center in the production line, and imports intermediate goods from nearby Asian countries. When China exports more final goods, East Asia countries will export more raw materials and intermediate goods to China and the intra-region countries. So the “China effect” is actually positive.

關鍵字(中)

★ 固定效果
★ 排擠效果
★ 出口
★ 中國
★ 東亞
★ 引力模型

關鍵字(英)

★ fixed effect
★ crowding out
★ export
★ China
★ East Asia
★ gravity model

論文目次

目錄..................................................i
圖目錄...............................................ii
表目錄..............................................iii
第一章緒論...........................................1
第一節研究動機.....................................1
第二節研究目的.....................................3
第三節研究架構.....................................3
第二章中國與東亞國家概況.............................4
第一節中國與東亞國家經濟發展歷程...................4
第二節生產的國際分工與東亞地區分工模式發展.........8
第三章文獻回顧......................................13
第一節可計算一般均衡分析..........................13
第二節引力模型....................................15
第四章資料處理與實證模型設定........................18
第一節資料來源與處理..............................18
第二節實證模型設定與變數說明......................20
第三節計量估計方法................................23
第五章實證結果與分析................................26
第一節中國與東亞國家出口表現......................26
第二節中國出口對東亞國家整體出口之影響............27
第三節中國出口對東亞國家原物料、中間財出口的影響..30
第四節中國最終財貨出口對東亞最終財貨出口之影響....35
第五節中國出口對不同所得國家的影響................37
第六章結論與建議....................................38
第一節結論........................................38
第二節未來研究方向與建議..........................38
參考文獻.............................................39
附錄.................................................41

參考文獻

Ahearne, A.G., J.G. Fernald, P. Loungani and J.W. Schindler (2003), China and Emerging Asia: Comrades or Competitors?, International Finance Discussion Paper No. 789 (New York: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System).
Amighini, A. (2005), [People’s Republic of] China in the International Fragmentation of Production: Evidence from the ICT Industry, European Journal of Comparative Economics. 2(2), 203–219.
Ananthakrishnan, P. and S. Jain-Chandra (2005) The Impact on India of Trade Liberalisation in the Textiles and Clothing Sector, IMF Working Paper No. 05/214.
Arndt, Sven W. (1997). “Globalization and the Open Economy.” North American Journal of Economics and Finance 8 (1): 71–79.
Athukorala, P.C. (2005), Product Fragmentation and Trade Patterns in East Asia, Asian Economic Papers, 4(3), 1–27.
Athukorala, P.C. (2008), Production Fragmentation in Manufacturing Trade: The Role of East Asia in Global Production Networks’, in F. di Mauro, W. McKibbin and S. Dees (eds.), Globalization, Regionalism and Economic Interdependence, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Athukorala, P.C. (2009a), The Rise of [the People’s Republic of] China and East Asian Export Performance: Is the Crowding-Out Fear Warranted? The World Economy, 32(2), 234–266.
Athukorala, P.C. (2009b), Production Networks and Trade Patterns: East Asia in a Global Context, Departmental Working Papers. 2009-15, Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
Athukorala, P.C. (2010), Production Networks and Trade Patterns in East Asia: Regionalization or Globalization? ADB Working Paper Series on Regional Economic Integration, 56, Manila: Asian Development Bank.
Athukorala, P.C. and N. Yamashita (2006), Production Fragmentation and Trade Integration:East Asia in a Global Context, North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 17(3), 233–256.
Borrus, M., D. Earnst and S. Haggard (2000), International Production Networks in Asia: Rivalry or Riches? London: Routledge.
Deardorff, A. (1998), Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World? In Frankel, J.A. (ed), The Regionalization of the World Economy, Chapter 1. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Dimaranan, B., E. Ianchovichina and W. Martin (2007), Competition with Giants: Who Wins, Who Loses?’, in A. L. Winters and S. Yusuf (eds.), Dancing with Giants: China, India, and Global Economy, Washington, DC: World Bank, 67–100.
Eichengreen, B., Y. Rhee and H. Tong, (2007), China and the Exports of Other Asian Countries, Review of World Economics, 143(2), 201-226.
Feenstra, R.C. (1998), Integration of Trade and Disintegration of Production in the Global Economy, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 12(4), 31–50.
Feenstra, R. C. and G.H. Hanson. 1996. “Foreign Investment, Outsourcing, and Relative Wages.” In The Political Economy of Trade Policy: Papers in Honor of Jagdish Bhagwati, ed. Robert
Fernald, J., H. Edison and P. Loungani (1999), Was China the First Domino? Assessing Links between China and Other Asian Economies, Journal of International Money and Finance, 18, 515-535.
Freund, C. and C. Ozden (2006), The effect of China’s exports on Latin American trade with the world’ Processed, World Bank.
Geda, A. and A.G. Meskel (2007), China and India Growth Surge: Is it a Curse of Blessing for Africa? The Case of Manufacturing Exports, Open University Asian Drivers Programme Resources List.
Greenaway, D., A. Mahabir and C. Milner (2008), Has China Displaced other Asian Countries’ Exports?, China Economic Review, 19(2), 152–169.
Giovannetti, G. and M. Sanfilippo (2009), Do Chinese Exports Crowd-out African Goods? An Econometric Analysis by Country and Sector, The European Journal of Development Research, 21( 4), 506-530.
Hummels, D., J. Ishii, and K.M. Yi (2001), The Nature and Growth of Vertical Specialization in World Trade, Journal of International Economics, 54(1), 75–96.
Ianchovichina, E. and W. Martin(2006), Trade impacts of China’s World Trade Organization accession, Asian Economic Policy Review, 1, 46–65.
Ianchovichina, E. and T. Walmsley (2005), Impact of China’s WTO Accession on East Asia, Contemporary Economic Policy, 23(2), 261–277.
IMF (International Monetary Fund) (2004), China’s Emergence and its Impact on the Global Economy, World Economic Outlook, Washington, DC: IMF, 82–102.
Jenkins, R., E.D. Peters and M.M. Moreira (2006), The impact of China on Latin America and the Caribbean, World Development, 36(2), 235-253.
Jones, R.W. and H. Kierzkowski (2001), A Framework for Fragmentation, in S. W. Arndt and H. Kierzkowski (eds.), Fragmentation: New Production Patterns in the World Economy, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 17–34.
Krugman, P.R. (1995), Growing World Trade: Causes and Consequences, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1, 327–77.
Lall, S. and M. Albaladejo (2004), China Competitive Performance: A Threat to East Asia Manufactured exports? World Development, 32(9), 1441-1466.
Lall, S. and J. Weiss (2005), China’s Competitive Threat to Latin America; An Analysis for 1990-2002, Oxford Development Studies, 33(2), 163-192.
MacDonald, S., S. Pan, A. Somwaru and F. Tuan (2004), China’s Role in World Cotton and Textiles Markets, 7th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Washington, DC.
Nordas, H. (2004), The Global Textiles and Clothing Industry Post the Agreement on Textiles and Clothing, Discussion Paper No. 5 (Geneva: World Trade Organization).
Plumper, T. and V. Troeger (2007), Efficient Estimation of Time-Invariant and Rarely Changing Variables in Finite Sample Panel Analyses with Unit Fixed Effects, Political Analysis, 15(2), 124 -139.
Quintin, E, (2004), Mexico’s Export Woes not All China-induced, Southwest Economy, Issue 6, November/December, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Ravenhill, J. (2006), Is China an Economic Threat to Southeast Asia?, Asian Survey, 46(5), 653–674.
Yang, Y. (2006), China’s integration into the world economy: implications for developing countries, Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, 20(1), 40–56.
Yi, K.M. (2003), Can Vertical Specialization Explain the Growth of World Trade? Journal of Political Economics, 111(1), 52–102.

指導教授

楊志海(Chih-hai Yang)

審核日期

2012-6-22

推文