| dc.description.abstract |
Human activities, such as the pattern of land use changes, urbanization with the population density and impermeable pavement increased year by year affect the hydrologic environment. On the other hand, greenhouse gas emissions cause climate change, affecting the temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall. From the perspective of water resources, these changes will have impact on the hydrological environment. The identified potential impacts of climate change and land use change on the basin can be used as a reference for future urban development planning. The CLUE-s model, SWAT model and WGEN model were employed to estimate the impacts of hydrological fluxes of Fongshan River basin, given land use changes and climate changes condition projected in 2030. Land use types are divided into six categories, namely agriculture, forest, urban, water conservancy, recreation, and others, to discuss the land use changes. The CLUE-s model was utilized to simulate the future land use change situation. There are five land use programs, namely 15%, 20%, 25% and 30% of urbanization and no change. The climate change component is RCP8.5 with no change scenarios. Two sets of contexts were input into the SWAT model to discuss the relationship between urban land use and climate change in the Fengshan River Basin in 2030. The simulation results show that the climate change affects the rainfall and temperature. The impact of flows is positively correlated with the rainfall in the scenario, which is partially due to urbanization alter the surface impermeability and increases the surface runoff, but reduces the lateral flow of the soil and the groundwater flow. The impact of climate change is 5 to 22 times of 15% to 30% of land use change scenarios. However, this study suggests that the impact of land use change can’t be ignored. | en_US |