博碩士論文 106225014 完整後設資料紀錄

DC 欄位 語言
DC.contributor統計研究所zh_TW
DC.creator簡子軒zh_TW
DC.creatorZih-Syuan Jianen_US
dc.date.accessioned2019-7-30T07:39:07Z
dc.date.available2019-7-30T07:39:07Z
dc.date.issued2019
dc.identifier.urihttp://ir.lib.ncu.edu.tw:444/thesis/view_etd.asp?URN=106225014
dc.contributor.department統計研究所zh_TW
DC.description國立中央大學zh_TW
DC.descriptionNational Central Universityen_US
dc.description.abstract位於多板塊交界帶的台灣與日本,斷層多而複雜,因此在強主震後經常發生集群式的有感餘震。為能在強震後進行即時的短期餘震風險評估,本文利用混合二維常態分布描述餘震的空間分布,結合Reasenberg-Jones(簡記為 RJ)模型,建立餘震時空風險模式,簡記為SRJ模式。本文分別分析 1999年 9月 21日台灣集集規模 7.3 地震,以及2011 年 3 月 11 日發生在日本東部海域規模9.0地震後的餘震資料,藉SRJ模式或傳統的點格--RJ方法建立相對餘震風險圖用以預警強餘震,並且根據各種準則,評估上述相對餘震風險圖在即期預警短期強餘震的效果。在綜合評估之下,SRJ模式對於上述兩筆餘震序列的風險評估優於點格--RJ方法。zh_TW
dc.description.abstractTaiwan and Japan are located in the junction of multiple tectonic plates where involve complex fault zones. Therefore, there are clustered aftershocks of large earthquakes. In order to assess the risk of aftershock in near-real-time after the main shock, we propose a model with a mixture of bivariate normal distribution to describe the spatial hazard of aftershocks. The spatial hazard function joint with the Reasenberg-Jone (RJ) model then gives a new spatial-temporal-magnitude hazard of aftershocks, denoted by SRJ model. We employ the SRJ model to illustrate two aftershock sequences of, namely, the Mw 7.7 earthquake occurred on September 21, 1999, in Chi-Chi, Taiwan, and Mw 9.0 earthquake occurred on March 11, 2011, in Tohoku-Oki, Japan. The relative aftershock hazard (RAH) maps are constructed based on SRJ model or gridding-RJ method. The effect of RAH maps on depicting possible rupture area of forthcoming large aftershocks is evaluated according to a variety of criteria based on ROC curve and Molchan error diagram. The results finally demostrate that the RAH map based on the SRJ model provides an efficent and better forecast of spatial-temporal magnitude aftershock hazard than the one hazard on gridding--RJ model.en_US
DC.subject餘震發生率衰退法則zh_TW
DC.subject地震規模頻率法則zh_TW
DC.subject餘震時間規模風險模式zh_TW
DC.subject混合分布zh_TW
DC.subject機率增益量zh_TW
DC.subject勝算增益量zh_TW
DC.subject接收者操作特徵曲線zh_TW
DC.subject相對餘震風險圖zh_TW
DC.subjectmagnitude frequency lawen_US
DC.subjecttime-magnitude modelen_US
DC.subjectmixture modelen_US
DC.subjectrelative aftershock hazard mapen_US
DC.subjectProbability Gainen_US
DC.subjectOdds gainen_US
DC.subjectReceiver Operating Characteristicen_US
DC.subjectrelative aftershock hazard mapen_US
DC.title多板塊交界地區餘震時空風險之統計評估zh_TW
dc.language.isozh-TWzh-TW
DC.titleStatistical Evaluation of Spatial-Temporal-Magnitude of Short--Term Aftershock Hazard on a junction of multiple tectonic platesen_US
DC.type博碩士論文zh_TW
DC.typethesisen_US
DC.publisherNational Central Universityen_US

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