| dc.description.abstract | The data of this research’s is obtained from the seismic database of the Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan. The time range of analysis is from 1990 to 2003. We first use the MATLAB program to find the earthquakes with magnitudes of M≧6.0 in three years, and plot the seismic distribution .Next we try to find 5 earthquake events with uniform distances, and the error of the uniformity is required to be smaller than 1.2%. If no arc can be found, then we reduce the value of M to continue the search until an intersection of two circular arcs of earthquake can be found. This intersection is called ＂ the strongest intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes ＂.
In 3 years after “the strongest intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes” have occurred, we look for the strong earthquakes happened within the radius of 90 km and the radius of 70 km from the intersection. For the strong earthquakes of M≧5.7 , the occurrence probability in the circular regions with radii of 90 km is 75.0% in 300 days, 62.5% in 200 days, and 62.5% in 100 days. Inside the circular regions with radii of 70 kilometers, the occurrence probability is 58.3% in 300 days, 50.0% in 200 days, and 37.5% in 100 days. For the strong earthquakes of M≧6.0 , the occurrence probability in the circular regions with radii of 90 km is 50.0% in 300 days, 33.3% in 200 days, and 16.7% in 100 days. Inside the circular regions with radii of 70 kilometers, the occurrence probability is 33.3% in 300 days, 29.2% in 200 days, and 12.5% in 100 days.
In 3 years after “the strongest double-convex intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes” have occurred, we look for the strong earthquakes happened within the radius of 90 km and the radius of 70 km from the intersection. For the strong earthquakes of M≧5.7 , the occurrence probability in the circular regions with radii of 90 km is 76.9% in 300 days, 69.2% in 200 days, and 46.2% in 100 days. Inside the circular regions with radii of 70 kilometers the occurrence probability is 69.2% in 300 days, 61.5% in 200 days, and 38.5% in 100 days. For the strong earthquake of M≧6.0 , the occurrence probability in the circular regions with radii of 90 km is 53.8% in 300 days, 53.8% in 200 days, and 23.1% in 100 days. Inside the circular regions with radii of 70 kilometers the occurrence probability is 46.2% in 300 days, 46.2% in 200 days, and 15.4% in 100 days.
In 3 years after “the strongest double-convex intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes” have occurred, we look for the strong earthquakes happened within the radius of 90 km and the radius of 70 km from the intersection. For the strong earthquakes of M≧5.7 , the occurrence probability in the circular regions with radii of 90 km is 87.5% in 300 days, 87.5% in 200 days, and 62.5% in 100 days. Inside the circular regions with radii of 70 kilometers the occurrence probability is 75.0% in 300 days, 75.0% in 200 days, and 50.0% in 100 days. For the strong earthquakes of M≧6.0 , the occurrence probability in the circular regions with radii of 90 km is 62.5% un 300 days, 62.5% in 200 days, and 25.0% in 100 days. Inside the circular regions with radii of 70 kilometers the occurrence probability is 50.0% in 300 days, 50.0% in 200 days, and 12.5% in 100 days.
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