| dc.description.abstract | Strong earthquakes usually bring up significant losses and disasters to humanbeing, and large aftershocks occurred shortly after the major earthquake may further weaken the damaged structures. To carry out a rescue safely, it is crucial to assess the real-time risk of large aftershocks. In this study, we obtain the earthquake catalog from the Taiwan Seismological and Geophysical Data Management System (GDMS，https://gdms.cwa.gov.tw/
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catalogDownload.php). Of particular interest are earthquakes with magnitude of 3.0 or higher and hypocentral depth within 70 kilometers that occurred between 1994 and 2023 in the Taiwan region (from 118°E to 126°E, 20°N to 26°N). An empiried rule-based declustering method is applied to find main shocks with magnitude 5.0 or greater, and hence the associated largest aftershocks. The distribution of the magnitude of mainshocks, and that of the inter-occurrence time between successive main shocks are investigated. Moreover, the copula-based joint distribution of the differences in magnitude, time, and distance between the mainshock and the associated largest aftershock is studied. Finally, we conducted and evaluated different methods for forecasting the possible magnitude and time of the next mainshock, as well as after the current main shock, the possible magnitude, time, and epicenter of the largest aftershock. | en_US |