| dc.description.abstract | In recent years, Taiwan′s real estate market has remained active, with housing prices rising far beyond the growth in people′s incomes, making home ownership a heavy burden for many families and young people. The persistently high housing prices not only deter prospective homebuyers but also raise concerns across society about the potential existence of a housing bubble. As the administrative capital of Taiwan, Taipei City has particularly high housing prices. To better understand the dynamics of Taipei′s housing prices and to examine the potential existence of a bubble, this study utilizes data from the Ministry of the Interior′s actual price registration. It applies Hamilton′s (2018) time series decomposition method to estimate the fundamental housing prices for each district in Taipei and subsequently uses the GSADF test proposed by Phillips et al. (2015) for analysis.
The empirical results show that the actual housing prices in all districts of Taipei City are generally higher than their fundamental values. The test results indicate that Xinyi, Daan, Songshan, Wanhua, Wenshan, Nangang, and Neihu districts have significantly higher risks of housing price bubbles, whereas Beitou, Shilin, Zhongzheng, Datong, and Zhongshan districts exhibit relatively stable housing prices. These findings provide important data support for understanding the housing price trends and bubble risks in various districts of Taipei City. | en_US |