| dc.description.abstract | With the rapid changes in the global market and advances in technology, sales forecasting plays a crucial role in corporate financial risk management, inventory control, and production planning. Accurate sales forecasting not only enhances corporate cost-effectiveness and customer satisfaction but also reduces the risks of overproduction and insufficient inventory, thereby boosting competitive advantage and financial stability. Thus, effective sales forecasting is essential for responding to market demand fluctuations and optimizing inventory and production management.
In recent years, the widespread use of electronic products and the rise of the work-from-home model have significantly increased consumer demand for eye-protective reading and smart lighting products. When purchasing electronic products such as computer monitors, consumers often consider acquiring screen protective lighting devices simultaneously. In response to this trend, the case company has established safe inventory levels to stabilize product supply in the face of market demand fluctuations. Therefore, the application of time series algorithms for short-term sales forecasting of screen lighting lamps becomes particularly important. However, the forecasting process is challenging due to the impact of seasonal variations, market trends, and special events like pandemics.
This study applies three time series algorithms—Prophet, SARIMA, and Holt-Winters—to forecast the short-term sales for the next three months of three types of screen lighting lamps, ScreenLight A, B, and C, in markets A and B. The training intervals are set at 1 year, 1.5 years, and 2 years, to assess these models′ efficacy in handling seasonal changes and sudden events. The results show that the Prophet model, due to its excellent adaptability in responding quickly to seasonal changes and special events, demonstrated higher forecasting accuracy among the three algorithms. In contrast, while the SARIMA and Holt-Winters models performed well under specific conditions, their adaptability in broader application scenarios was relatively weaker.
This research underscores the importance of short-term sales forecasting in the screen lighting lamp market and provides specific and feasible strategies for related businesses to enhance their rapid response capabilities in the face of market uncertainties and external shocks. | en_US |